The year is mostly through and it has not happened yet.
0.133441
Relative Brier Score
30
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Badge
Star Commenter - Sep 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 20, 2025 01:39AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Sep 20, 2025 to Mar 20, 2026
100%
No
Sep 20, 2025 to Mar 20, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There are many other surrounding countries that have had it, it could be that another does.
Files
What about the volatility that is occurring in many countries in the Sahel?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Argentina
0%
Bolivia
0%
Ecuador
Why do you think you're right?
It is nearing Oct 1 and they have not defaulted.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It could be the case that Bolivia defaults because of its rapidly depleting reserves. Argentina and Ecuador could default due to their historical trend.
Files
If, as you state, "could be the case" than Bolivia defaults, then why the forecast is at 0? Thanks.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 20, 2025 01:38AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Sep 20, 2025 to Mar 20, 2026
100%
No
Sep 20, 2025 to Mar 20, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
I think it's possible it would happen soon but not this year.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
You never really know. The PLA could decide to do it this year.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 20, 2025 01:36AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Sep 20, 2025 to Mar 20, 2026
100%
No
Sep 20, 2025 to Mar 20, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
I really don't foresee an agreement this year. Tensions are too high.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Some sort of extreme event or good deal could bring people to the table.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Angola
0%
Kenya
100%
Ethiopia
100%
Nigeria
Why do you think you're right?
Angola and Kenya have not historically defaulted. Ethiopia and Nigeria have and pressures are increasing.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Each countries debt is increasing, these pressures do no expect to be relieved resulting in defaults.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 49
20%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
80%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
0%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 80
Why do you think you're right?
I think it'll drop again. It dropped last year and activity seems to be match that downward trend.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It could be the case that an event occurs that will result in a higher percentage.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 9%
0%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
100%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
0%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 40%
Why do you think you're right?
I do not think it'll drop below 20%. It dropped 5% recently, so I think that it'll likely stay in that range, but if it drops further, it wouldn't be more than 7%.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There could be a major event occurring that would increase the percentage above 30% again. It was fairly close to 30% last year, so it could go up instead.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Average is around 60-90. I'm not sure what happened in 22-23, but if we go with trends then it may be around 60-69.
Why might you be wrong?
It could be another low number year, depending on why that happened. Otherwise, the trend remains around the number that I selected.
Very close to the margin. I would have thought It would be higher. But counting campaigns is discretionary. I always thought that you could identify strands or themes or flat out lies. It would be great if we knew the volumes of these campaigns in intensity, numbers posts amplified by different AI in different social media.
I think Moldova presented a text book case with Direct and high intensity disinformation campaigns alomg with bribes, using the Russian orthodox church and motivatimg Trans Dnistrians to vote.
When such a campaigns is so pervasive the Moldovans wisely pulled the plug on Moscow proxy parties before election. Pulling the plug after candidates win, like Romania did is a bad look to VP Hillbilly Elegy Vance.
Either way Rumanía and Moldova conducted fair and free elections. So did Germany. In National and state elections AFD is oficial opposition. They still are behind CDU and CDU by 10 points or more