Confirmed previous forecast
0.133441
Relative Brier Score
32
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 2 | 32 | 32 | 32 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 2 | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Quickfire Forecasts,
Geopolitical Security,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Emerging Technology
Most Active Topics:
Russian Disinformation,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Economic Debt,
Open RAN,
Africa
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 31, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Dec 31, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 31, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Dec 31, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 59
100%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
0%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
0%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 90
Why do you think you're right?
Average is around 60-90. I'm not sure what happened in 22-23, but if we go with trends then it may be around 60-69.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It could be another low number year, depending on why that happened. Otherwise, the trend remains around the number that I selected.
Files
Very close to the margin. I would have thought It would be higher. But counting campaigns is discretionary. I always thought that you could identify strands or themes or flat out lies. It would be great if we knew the volumes of these campaigns in intensity, numbers posts amplified by different AI in different social media.
I think Moldova presented a text book case with Direct and high intensity disinformation campaigns alomg with bribes, using the Russian orthodox church and motivatimg Trans Dnistrians to vote.
When such a campaigns is so pervasive the Moldovans wisely pulled the plug on Moscow proxy parties before election. Pulling the plug after candidates win, like Romania did is a bad look to VP Hillbilly Elegy Vance.
Either way Rumanía and Moldova conducted fair and free elections. So did Germany. In National and state elections AFD is oficial opposition. They still are behind CDU and CDU by 10 points or more
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Sep 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 20, 2025 01:39AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Sep 20, 2025 to Mar 20, 2026
100%
No
Sep 20, 2025 to Mar 20, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
The year is mostly through and it has not happened yet.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There are many other surrounding countries that have had it, it could be that another does.
Files
What about the volatility that is occurring in many countries in the Sahel?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Argentina
0%
Bolivia
0%
Ecuador
Why do you think you're right?
It is nearing Oct 1 and they have not defaulted.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It could be the case that Bolivia defaults because of its rapidly depleting reserves. Argentina and Ecuador could default due to their historical trend.
Files
If, as you state, "could be the case" than Bolivia defaults, then why the forecast is at 0? Thanks.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 20, 2025 01:38AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Sep 20, 2025 to Mar 20, 2026
100%
No
Sep 20, 2025 to Mar 20, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
I think it's possible it would happen soon but not this year.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
You never really know. The PLA could decide to do it this year.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 20, 2025 01:36AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Sep 20, 2025 to Mar 20, 2026
100%
No
Sep 20, 2025 to Mar 20, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
I really don't foresee an agreement this year. Tensions are too high.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Some sort of extreme event or good deal could bring people to the table.
Files