Bishop

I'm essentially sandbagging on this question since I'm dropping in after the summit and details on agreements are being reported.

Key Text:
"In order to bring Madrid on board, the new language that leaders will approve on Wednesday was changed from "we commit" to "allies commit" to spend 5 percent on defense, a NATO official said. That would allow Spain spending flexibility as long as it meets NATO's updated capability targets approved by alliance defense ministers on June 5.

In a statement on Sunday, Sánchez described the outcome as a “success,” which will allow Spain to “fulfill its commitments to the Atlantic alliance and preserve its unity, without having to increase defense spending to 5 percent of GDP."" [1]

Trump has also said the US will not have to pay the 5%. [1]

Irrespective of the US, Spain got what it wanted so there is no incentive for them to change their position over the next 29 days. Perhaps they'll agree to something higher at a later time, and they may have more pressure applied to them as other countries presumably increase their spending to meet the 2035 timeline, but any sort of increase is likely outside the timeframe of this question.

[1] https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-allies-defense-spending-goal-spain-gdp/#:~:text=Spain%20threw%20up%20a%20last,way%20after%20being%20granted%20flexibility.&text=NATO%20allies%20have%20reached%20a,officials%20told%20POLITICO%20on%20Sunday.

Other links

NATO Official press release from summit
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_236705.htm

Defence expenditures and NATO’s 5% commitment
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49198.htm

considered moving to 100 on "No" but am going to leave things at 99% No, 1% Yes just because there is a non-zero chance something may happen over the next few days.

updating for the passage of time

Moving up a point on the possibility he may cease to be president on the suspicious limo fire, but expect him to be even more vigilant. If it was an assassination attempt on Putin, or even just a test of capabilities, it sends a clear message that there are gaps in security that can be exploited.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-putin-limousine-fire-video-2052846 

I don't think Putin is particularly interested in a ceasefire.

While I will need to look into typical ceasefire processes, it still seems to be very early in the process.

The Trump administration remains a wildcard, both interms of impacts on ongoing hostilities as well as upsetting the typical negotiation process.

Possible Comparative Cases off the top of my head: North/South Korea, Israel/Hamas in Gaza, India/Pakistan

Resource for India/Pakistan (https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan)