CleverCactus

Increasing probability of "no" based on time remaining, and no escalation.

Adjusting probability of 0-1 up due to time remaining and general lack of evidence of hurricane landfall (major or otherwise) in the coming 5 days. 

 1,514 confirmed cases as of 9/23 with one week remaining, with a 4-week rolling average from Aug 17 - Sep 7 of 26/week, so it seems very firmly like we will fall in the third bin. 

There is very little time remaining for this to occur, and the troops currently stationed there have engaged in joint drills with Japan, seemingly as a demonstration of unity and power. However, as others have noted, the resolution is simply an announcement and not a withdrawal, which could be made hastily for any number of reasons. Hasty withdrawal could be used as leverage to try to appease Russia, who has close ties with N Korea and China, which could be seen as a negotiating tactic to bring an end to the war in Ukraine. While I believe this is highly unlikely, I think it is not outside the realm of possibility, but, given the dwindling time frame, I will still give only the smallest probability of this occurring.

Just based on the amount of time remaining for resolution of this question, combined with the relatively quiet news of escalation of conflict/confrontation, it seems highly unlikely that this will occur in the next two weeks.

Uptick in number of weekly cases in the past few weeks (ignoring the past 2 weeks for the known lag). The 4 complete weeks in August show 11 cases, then 20, then 29, then 23. If we hold steady, then I would expect the numbers in the first two weeks of September to be in the 20s. Since we are at 1454 as of 9/9, I would expect that the data release on 9/16 to show about 1475 and the release on 9/23 to show about 1500. In order to cross the threshold of the 1500-1649 category, we would need ~12 cases/week, which I think is likely given the current trend upward. It is looking unlikely to cross to the next category (1650-1799), which would require 200 cases in the next 4 weeks.

Passage of time/only 3 weeks remaining with no major activity to date and no major storms predicted in the coming week. Even if one major storm occurred, the likelihood of another occurring within 3 weeks would be highly anomalous.