DimaKlenchin

Only four days left.

Last year was 285. The Texas 2025 outbreak is practically over. Going by 2024 rate, ~170 additional ones will be added in 2025, for a total of 1220. Comfortably in the lowest bin even to the end of the year.

Significantly larger rate would be required to get to the second bin.  Possible but not terribly likely. The remaining three bins would require, IMO, another dramatic outbreak within the next three months  - something for which the base rate is zero in the past 15-30 years. That's down to a noise and so I'll assign equal probabilities.

Five days left. Typical response to Nvidia's earnings reports is dumping the stock (7/8 most recent ones), so base rate for sufficient uplift following May 28th report is not favorable for a positive resolution.

Couple new developments on where Russians stand:

1. Lavrov yesteday: No more "ceasefire first, and then we'll see". There cannot be any ceasefire before peace negotiations.

2. Putin today: ordered creation of the buffer zone alone the entire border between Russia and Ukraine.

The implication is that military action will have to be amped in the Kharkov, Sumy and Chernigov oblasts. Don't think it's possible right now but it's another roadblock in the settlement of the conflict.

@RUN_RWC's point that the labeling rule is supposed to go into effect on Sept 25.

Notice on Issuing the "Measures for the Identification of AI-Generated Synthetic Content"

Document No. [2025] 2

To: Internet Information Offices, Communications Administrations, Public Security Departments (Bureaus), Broadcasting and Television Bureaus of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities; Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Internet Information Office, Industry and Information Bureau, Public Security Bureau, Culture, Sports, Radio, Television and Tourism Bureau:

Oops, I forgot about Memorial Day. Only six trading days left.

Time decay

Passage of time

The annual base rate is 2/50 *(1975 and 2000). Roughly 4 months left to resolution. Rounding to the nearest integer.