DimaKlenchin

Dima Klenchin
About:
Show more

No Scores Yet

Relative Brier Score

193

Forecasts

123

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 17 65 505 193 873
Comments 20 74 308 248 416
Questions Forecasted 11 30 63 41 98
Upvotes on Comments By This User 4 10 261 123 497
 Definitions
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Only four days left.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

.

Files
New Prediction
DimaKlenchin
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
89%
Less than or equal to 1349
8%
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
1%
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
1%
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
1%
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?

Last year was 285. The Texas 2025 outbreak is practically over. Going by 2024 rate, ~170 additional ones will be added in 2025, for a total of 1220. Comfortably in the lowest bin even to the end of the year.

Significantly larger rate would be required to get to the second bin.  Possible but not terribly likely. The remaining three bins would require, IMO, another dramatic outbreak within the next three months  - something for which the base rate is zero in the past 15-30 years. That's down to a noise and so I'll assign equal probabilities.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

If any of my explicit and implicit assumptions and calculations used to make the forecast prove significantly incorrect, I will likely be wrong. In the same vein, if there are biases that I have not accounted for and/or did not correct or corrected for improperly, I will likely be wrong too.

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Five days left. Typical response to Nvidia's earnings reports is dumping the stock (7/8 most recent ones), so base rate for sufficient uplift following May 28th report is not favorable for a positive resolution.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

A surprise is possible.

Files
New Prediction
DimaKlenchin
made their 15th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0% (-1%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
3% (0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
7% (+1%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
90% (0%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?

Couple new developments on where Russians stand:

1. Lavrov yesteday: No more "ceasefire first, and then we'll see". There cannot be any ceasefire before peace negotiations.

2. Putin today: ordered creation of the buffer zone alone the entire border between Russia and Ukraine.

The implication is that military action will have to be amped in the Kharkov, Sumy and Chernigov oblasts. Don't think it's possible right now but it's another roadblock in the settlement of the conflict.


Files
Why might you be wrong?

Same as before

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

@RUN_RWC's point that the labeling rule is supposed to go into effect on Sept 25.

Notice on Issuing the "Measures for the Identification of AI-Generated Synthetic Content"

Document No. [2025] 2

To: Internet Information Offices, Communications Administrations, Public Security Departments (Bureaus), Broadcasting and Television Bureaus of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities; Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Internet Information Office, Industry and Information Bureau, Public Security Bureau, Culture, Sports, Radio, Television and Tourism Bureau:

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Pending clarifications and/or decision on resolution.

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Oops, I forgot about Memorial Day. Only six trading days left.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

 

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Time decay

Files
Why might you be wrong?

.

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Passage of time

Files
Why might you be wrong?

.

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

The annual base rate is 2/50 *(1975 and 2000). Roughly 4 months left to resolution. Rounding to the nearest integer.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Base rate should work unless I missed some sort of a current flare up. Pakistan does not count.

Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username