40th
Accuracy Rank

DimaKlenchin

Dima Klenchin
About:
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-0.016544

Relative Brier Score

136

Forecasts

115

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 8 34 485 136 816
Comments 9 39 249 183 351
Questions Forecasted 6 18 55 29 86
Upvotes on Comments By This User 3 16 264 115 489
 Definitions
New Prediction
DimaKlenchin
made their 10th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
20% (-10%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
10% (0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
10% (0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
60% (+10%)
Not before 2026
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Why might you be wrong?

.

Files
New Prediction
DimaKlenchin
made their 9th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
30% (+28%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
10% (+1%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
10% (-2%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
50% (-27%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?

Hedging in case the 72 hours "truce" will resolve the question where 30 hours one has not.

My view is that it is Putin's PR stunt but that Zelensky will "accept" it. Still, IMO a positive resolution will not conform to the spirit of the question . But I've seen a lot of resolutions closing on positively on far smaller technicalities. Hence the hedge.

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Why might you be wrong?

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Slight tweak

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Why might you be wrong?

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New Prediction
DimaKlenchin
made their 14th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
7% (0%)
Togo
20% (0%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Why do you think you're right?

Affirming

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Why might you be wrong?

same as before

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New Prediction
DimaKlenchin
made their 9th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than or equal to 49
2% (0%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
27% (0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
53% (0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
18% (0%)
More than or equal to 80
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
DimaKlenchin
made their 9th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than or equal to 9%
5% (0%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
76% (0%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
18% (0%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
1% (0%)
More than or equal to 40%
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Not a lot of time left for Nvidia to catch up.

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Why might you be wrong?

 

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New Prediction
DimaKlenchin
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
2% (0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
9% (0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
12% (0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
77% (0%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?

Putin's spokesman in the interview to a French outlet:

▪️ "We intend to achieve our goals. Whether by peaceful or by military means, we will get there. The goals remain the same, they are clearly defined";
▪️ The war will end immediately if Ukraine withdraws troops from the four regions "enshrined in the Constitution of the Russian Federation".
▪️ Zelensky's resignation is "not part of the Kremlin's demands", but any documents signed by him could be disputed because of his "illegitimacy";
▪️ Putin respects Trump. They agree that refusing dialogue is absurd. The hypothetical meeting between Trump and Putin "should be productive" and "preparatory work is underway".

Translation: Putin just said that absolutely nothing has changed. Affirming a very low probability in the next two months.

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Why might you be wrong?

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Affirm

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Why might you be wrong?

.

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New Prediction
DimaKlenchin
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
2% (0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
9% (0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
12% (0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
77% (0%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?

What a truly a weird situation. Technically, the "Easter truce" should resolve this question as "yes" because there is evidence that Putin ordered it and Zelensky initially refused but eventually agreed. But if it closes as yes, it will totally violate the spirit of the question:

This ceasefire is supposed to only last 30 hours (18:00 Apr 19 to 00:00 Apr 21, Moscow time) and has not held probably even a minute because both sides violated it immediately. Notably, the fighting continues unabated in Kursk and Belgorod oblasts:

As of the morning of April 20, 2025, the border areas of the Kursk and Belgorod regions remain a zone of fierce fighting.

As of this writing, there are 7.5 hours left in this "ceasefire". Tough decision for admins to make for sure. It might cost me a lot in scoring but I am continuing to forecast a meaningful ceasefire - comprehensive, negotiated, with conditions formally stated and signed by both sides.

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Why might you be wrong?

If admins decide that this "fig leaf" of a ceasefire (an apt characterization by @Plataea479) counts.

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