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| Definitions | |||||
Hedging in case the 72 hours "truce" will resolve the question where 30 hours one has not.
My view is that it is Putin's PR stunt but that Zelensky will "accept" it. Still, IMO a positive resolution will not conform to the spirit of the question . But I've seen a lot of resolutions closing on positively on far smaller technicalities. Hence the hedge.
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Slight tweak
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Affirming
same as before
Not a lot of time left for Nvidia to catch up.
Putin's spokesman in the interview to a French outlet:
▪️ "We intend to achieve our goals. Whether by peaceful or by military means, we will get there. The goals remain the same, they are clearly defined";
▪️ The war will end immediately if Ukraine withdraws troops from the four regions "enshrined in the Constitution of the Russian Federation".
▪️ Zelensky's resignation is "not part of the Kremlin's demands", but any documents signed by him could be disputed because of his "illegitimacy";
▪️ Putin respects Trump. They agree that refusing dialogue is absurd. The hypothetical meeting between Trump and Putin "should be productive" and "preparatory work is underway".
Translation: Putin just said that absolutely nothing has changed. Affirming a very low probability in the next two months.
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Affirm
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What a truly a weird situation. Technically, the "Easter truce" should resolve this question as "yes" because there is evidence that Putin ordered it and Zelensky initially refused but eventually agreed. But if it closes as yes, it will totally violate the spirit of the question:
This ceasefire is supposed to only last 30 hours (18:00 Apr 19 to 00:00 Apr 21, Moscow time) and has not held probably even a minute because both sides violated it immediately. Notably, the fighting continues unabated in Kursk and Belgorod oblasts:
As of the morning of April 20, 2025, the border areas of the Kursk and Belgorod regions remain a zone of fierce fighting.
As of this writing, there are 7.5 hours left in this "ceasefire". Tough decision for admins to make for sure. It might cost me a lot in scoring but I am continuing to forecast a meaningful ceasefire - comprehensive, negotiated, with conditions formally stated and signed by both sides.
If admins decide that this "fig leaf" of a ceasefire (an apt characterization by @Plataea479) counts.
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?
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