62nd
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Faded_Oracle

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Feb 14, 2025 06:00PM UTC What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024? 0.068427
Jan 31, 2025 05:00AM UTC Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024? 0.300902
Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM UTC In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025) 0.097557
Jan 11, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025? 0.237304
Jan 09, 2025 02:00PM UTC Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 2, 2024 and Jan 9, 2025) 0.413015
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024? -0.001572
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated? -0.010998
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024? 0.054474
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA? -0.000836
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")? -0.008223
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024? -0.00047
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months? -0.000722
Dec 10, 2024 10:46PM UTC Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026? -0.002203
Oct 26, 2024 03:29AM UTC Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between May 10, 2024 and Oct 26, 2024) 0.266904
Oct 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 6, 2024 and Oct 6, 2024) -0.000033
Oct 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 6, 2024 and Oct 6, 2024) -0.000033
Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024) 0.134557
Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024) -0.086763
Sep 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 6, 2024 and Sep 6, 2024) -0.000161
Sep 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 6, 2024 and Sep 6, 2024) 0.000774
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