-0.000022
Relative Brier Score
1
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy
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Pretty much impossible to happen if not for natural causes or assassination. Priors on a rich man in 60s dying in a month is significantly less than 1%. Similar thing applies to assassination of a political leader in otherwise safe nation (gets a bit upgraded for the war but not much)