K-Trout

It appears that Germany committed to provide HIMARS on May 9.  The agreement was adjusted so that Germany would pay US but US would provide.  It seems that the first announcement meets the requirement for a 'yes"??????

This rate is a change to LY. The change reflects seasonality in change to last month. 2023 is useless because of post-covid inflation. So really just compare TY to LY and predict monthly change.  That sets May at 2.4, June at 2.7 and July at 2.8.  so teh 2.6-2.9 category is very likely.  Note that the tariff impact did not show in march or april, i doubt it will show in may june or july.

Q1 was 15%.  March was 15%.  Tesla sales are falling throughout Europe. Overall car sales in Europe dipped 0.3%, with the strongest growth coming from electric and plug-in hybrid cars, data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) showed.

Using ACLED, there are about 30 a day, or around 900 a month.  Less during a ceasefire.  So the real question is 'will there be a ceasefire for some or all of August'?  I think 'yes' for 1/2 of the month, so total 450+225 = 675 for august.

As of May 30 it is 1088.  In 2019 we had 1274 for the entire year, or 100 per month.  We have 4 months left in the forecast period, so 1500. Assume seasonal increase with school in september.  So 1600.  R0 is 12-18, 90% unvaccinated will contract.  The table "Weekly measles cases by rash onset date" looks like it is leading to a second peak around July 1, so add about 300 for that peak.  1900 initial high estimate.  Need to track the weekly, drop estimate if the weekly does not have a second peak.  1500 is my low, 1900 is my high.  Most likely is middle.

Conflict has been escalating. Likely see a Russian push over summer.  Ukraine has had success with drones.  Most likely outcome is no change (no ceasefire).