This rate is a change to LY. The change reflects seasonality in change to last month. 2023 is useless because of post-covid inflation. So really just compare TY to LY and predict monthly change. That sets May at 2.4, June at 2.7 and July at 2.8. so teh 2.6-2.9 category is very likely. Note that the tariff impact did not show in march or april, i doubt it will show in may june or july.
0.428172
Relative Brier Score
47
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 40 | 39 | 47 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 25 | 25 | 31 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Emerging Technology,
Quickfire Forecasts
Most Active Topics:
Cybersecurity,
Iran Nuclear Program,
East Asia Security,
Russia-Europe
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Sep 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jun 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 2.3%
0%
More than or equal to 2.3% but less than 2.6%
100%
More than or equal to 2.6% but less than 2.9%
0%
More than or equal to 2.9% but less than 3.2%
0%
More than or equal to 3.2%
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I built my forecast for July based on my forecasts for May and June. If my assumptions are wrong and I miss on May or June then my forecast for July will be wrong.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Q1 was 15%. March was 15%. Tesla sales are falling throughout Europe. Overall car sales in Europe dipped 0.3%, with the strongest growth coming from electric and plug-in hybrid cars, data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) showed.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Do not have data on May.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
19%
Less than or equal to 500
70%
Between 501 and 750, inclusive
11%
Between 751 and 1000, inclusive
0%
Between 1001 and 1250, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 1251
Why do you think you're right?
Using ACLED, there are about 30 a day, or around 900 a month. Less during a ceasefire. So the real question is 'will there be a ceasefire for some or all of August'? I think 'yes' for 1/2 of the month, so total 450+225 = 675 for august.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
ACLED definition could be different than what the author of Qx intends. Ceasefire prob may increase once Isreal occupies Gaza. Suggest update this forcast every week.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 1349
0%
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
13%
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
71%
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
16%
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
As of May 30 it is 1088. In 2019 we had 1274 for the entire year, or 100 per month. We have 4 months left in the forecast period, so 1500. Assume seasonal increase with school in september. So 1600. R0 is 12-18, 90% unvaccinated will contract. The table "Weekly measles cases by rash onset date" looks like it is leading to a second peak around July 1, so add about 300 for that peak. 1900 initial high estimate. Need to track the weekly, drop estimate if the weekly does not have a second peak. 1500 is my low, 1900 is my high. Most likely is middle.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
No second peak.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
5%
(-6%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
10%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
85%
(+6%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Conflict has been escalating. Likely see a Russian push over summer. Ukraine has had success with drones. Most likely outcome is no change (no ceasefire).
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Putin could die this summer. Russian push could reach Kiev this summer and end war. Third party could enter war and force ceasefire.
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - May 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?