Confirmed previous forecast
0.195582
Relative Brier Score
57
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 57 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Emerging Technology,
Russia-Ukraine War,
China Politics, Relations, and Technology,
Industry
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Mission: AI Advancement,
Semiconductor Supply Chain,
Microelectronics,
Manufacturing
New Prediction
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Yes
92%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Yes
92%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Yes
92%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Yes
92%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Yes
92%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files