Lyo

I don't see any action on this topic in the news for the last 3 weeks. I see no reason that Spain's position will change by the end of the month.

His approval has trended downward so far, which is expected so early in a President's first term. In his first presidency, President Trump got his biggest bounce in approval after bombing Iran. I was waiting to see if he got a bounce after the June 22nd strikes on Iran. According to Nate Silver's forecast, pollsters with more recent results all have him dropping in approval. Gallup has him at 40% as of June. I don't think he'll jump 5% in Gallup's polls in the next few weeks given that such a big action on his part did not give him a boost this time. Especially because Gallup likely already had the approval polls fielded.

Spain is exempt from the 5% pledge, so all 32 members have not agreed to spend 5% of GDP following the summit 

@TBall  just shared that the House isn't planning to vote on this until Wednesday. https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/trump-admin-live-updates-senate-begin-big-beautiful/?id=123330663]

I think I was allowing for too much uncertainty regarding a possible "war bump" in his approval. I'm pulling my prediction down a bit to 40%

I'll revise again when we have survey results on presidential approval from after the attacks on Iran.

Historically, Gallop's presidential approval ratings trend downward over a president's term, sometimes creeping back upward near the end of each term.Despite all the news from Washington since he was inaugurated, his approval on Gallop has not fluctuated a lot.
Gallop has him at 40% as of today (polling from Jun 2-19, 2025) with a downward trend, so the odds that he'll be above 40% without a big thing happening is slightly less than 50/50. So I should forecast below that, but...
Looking at Gallop's historical presidential appoval ratings, big upward jumps happen when big things happen -- particularly when America attacks or is attacked.  And big drops are less common (or at least, less dramatic).
We'll learn a lot when the next Gallup's next update comes in, which will presumably be from surveys taken after the attacks on Iran. (I went to SilverBulletin to look for more recent polls, but didn't find one quickly.)
I want to know 'how steady will his approval rating be this term?' In his previous term, his biggest peak came after he assassinated Qasem Soleimani. He could see a big enough bump to hold some of the gains through the summer.
For now, I'm at 50/50.

New ACEA announcement says the YTD, including May, is 15.4%. 

The June average would have to be 43%.  That would be a shocking number, and there's no indication sales have jumped that high.

Rational: Given that from Jan-April, BEVs comprised 15.3% 

In May-June, it would need to be 28% for the YTD to reach 20%.

If that had happened, it seems like there would be new stories about the sudden increase in demand.

It is too late for a sudden surge in sales to make up the difference.