RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Aug 01, 2025 09:00PM UTC	Will U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval rating be greater than 45% on 1 August 2025?	0.1165
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will all NATO members agree to a defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 31 July 2025?	-0.002977
Jul 24, 2025 04:00PM UTC	Will the share of battery-electric vehicles among new registered cars in the EU exceed 20% by the second quarter of 2025?	-0.000533
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?	0.0
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?	0.0
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will the U.S. Congress pass a budget reconciliation bill before 1 July 2025?	-0.000549
Jun 25, 2025 02:00AM UTC	Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic mayoral primary for New York City on 24 June 2025 in five rounds or fewer?	-0.00484

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