162nd
Accuracy Rank

MrLittleTexas

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2025 Season Stats

0.456742

Relative Brier Score

890

Forecasts

41

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 43 84 932 890 3216
Comments 19 32 369 359 416
Questions Forecasted 42 42 99 85 171
Upvotes on Comments By This User 1 6 43 41 228
 Definitions
New Prediction
What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act?
MrLittleTexas made their 6th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
2% (-2%)
Less than $21.0 billion
96% (+29%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
2% (-23%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
0% (-3%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
0% (-1%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Why do you think you're right?

Actually I misread, it seems like the version of the bill I was looking at has actually already passed the Senate

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Not 100% positive I was looking at the correct bill text when I made my previous forecast

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thai-pm-says-he-will-speak-trump-late-friday-cambodia-clashes-2025-12-12/

20 just in the last week

Files
Why might you be wrong?

N/A

Files
New Prediction
What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the EU, UK, and Switzerland be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?
MrLittleTexas made their 5th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
17% (0%)
Less than $350 million
29% (0%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million
29% (0%)
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million
21% (0%)
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million
4% (0%)
More than or equal to $800 million
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the U.S. be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?
MrLittleTexas made their 5th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
23% (0%)
Less than $350 million
28% (0%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million
28% (0%)
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million
16% (0%)
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million
5% (0%)
More than or equal to $650 million
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups globally be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?
MrLittleTexas made their 6th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
72% (0%)
Less than $1 billion
18% (0%)
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion
6% (0%)
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion
3% (0%)
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion
1% (0%)
More than or equal to $1.6 billion
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?
MrLittleTexas made their 10th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.
0% (0%)
More than €0 but less than €10 billion
0% (-2%)
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion
42% (+1%)
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion
58% (+1%)
€30 billion or more
Why do you think you're right?

Not sure how this comes out but going to stake my belief that US assistance is likely to come in low

Files
Why might you be wrong?

N/A

Files
New Prediction
What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act?
MrLittleTexas made their 5th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
4% (-16%)
Less than $21.0 billion
67% (+19%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
25% (+5%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
3% (-5%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
1% (-3%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Why do you think you're right?

In thousands 5,670,086 for O&M + 16,615,855 Total R&D, Test & Eval =
$22,285,941,000, between 21-22.5bn. I think a slight raise in the Senate is possible and most outcomes like a cut or a 10% increase are pretty unlikely

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Not sure what the historical variance is for spending when during negotiations with the Senate vs the originally passed bill

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Epoch is not updating, and developers are not making statements. If that holds into 2027 I think experts are likely to guess that >10^27 has been hit. Just extrapolating the historical rate of growth and US based models could already be there. Chinese 2027 models should easily be ahead of 2025 US models.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Maybe developers stop training with higher levels of compute for some reason I don't know about

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

I somehow missed that Russia signed a military agreement with Togo months back
http://duma.gov.ru/news/62177/
Would not surprise met at all if Africa Corps was already there. I doubt explicit public reporting will take place before the deadline but I'm staying a little bit elevated through the end of the year as I think this probably has happened and just won't count

Files
Why might you be wrong?

N/A

Files
Files
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