Confirmed previous forecast
-0.035598
Relative Brier Score
245
Forecasts
11
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 13 | 56 | 1231 | 245 | 2571 |
| Comments | 3 | 22 | 121 | 100 | 157 |
| Questions Forecasted | 13 | 29 | 73 | 40 | 126 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 84 | 11 | 198 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 49
8%
(0%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
31%
(0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
41%
(0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
19%
(0%)
More than or equal to 80
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
47%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
12%
(0%)
30 days
7%
(0%)
31-60 days
4%
(0%)
61-90 days
30%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
9%
(-1%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
9%
(-2%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
8%
(-3%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
74%
(+6%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Not looking so great, and Trump losing some patience with Putin
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-1%)
Yes
90%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Passage of time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Argentina
4%
(0%)
Bolivia
3%
(0%)
Ecuador
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Angola
2%
(0%)
Kenya
3%
(0%)
Ethiopia
2%
(0%)
Nigeria
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Moldova
3%
(0%)
Armenia
3%
(0%)
Georgia
2%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Downtrend - I think a downward skew should have been more likely than I had forecast before. It's a lot easier to stop posting or decrease the rate of updates than than to increase the rate of updates
Why might you be wrong?
N/A