Confirmed previous forecast
0.431634
Relative Brier Score
806
Forecasts
35
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 9 | 90 | 966 | 806 | 3132 |
| Comments | 1 | 22 | 341 | 327 | 384 |
| Questions Forecasted | 9 | 39 | 99 | 82 | 168 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 3 | 44 | 35 | 222 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 17, 2025 to May 17, 2026
96%
(0%)
No
Nov 17, 2025 to May 17, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
28%
(0%)
Yes
72%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Togo
Why do you think you're right?
Passage of time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
42%
(0%)
Yes
58%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
9%
(0%)
30 days
7%
(0%)
31-60 days
5%
(0%)
61-90 days
39%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 17, 2025 to May 17, 2026
96%
(0%)
No
Nov 17, 2025 to May 17, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
3%
(-10%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
97%
(+10%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?
Most of the data is in for the year and I doubt I will do better than the crowd on this one
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files