Suddenly rapid changes in the front line due to advances by the opposition. There's even a rumor circulating of a coup in Damascus while Assad is out of the country. Never would have expected this stuff even two days ago
-1.888065
Relative Brier Score
1362
Forecasts
101
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 66 | 1420 | 1362 | 2189 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 17 | 15 | 43 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 48 | 95 | 79 | 117 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 2 | 8 | 105 | 101 | 183 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
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Oracle - Silver
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Top Forecaster - Nov 2024
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Power Forecaster - Nov 2024
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Probability
Answer
63%
(+23%)
Yes
37%
(-23%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 25, 2024 to May 25, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 25, 2024 to May 25, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
0%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
100%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
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