Forecasted Questions
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2026 05:18PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Jan 28, 2026 05:18PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 7% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 94% | 93% | +1% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2026 05:18PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Jan 28, 2026 05:18PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 4% | 5% | -1% | +0% |
| Armenia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Georgia | 2% | 3% | -1% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts
14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2026 05:18PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Jan 28, 2026 05:18PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 16% | 16% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 84% | 84% | +0% | +0% |
Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts
14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2026 05:19PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Jan 28, 2026 05:19PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications | 2% | 3% | -1% | +0% |
| No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP | 97% | 96% | +1% | +0% |
| No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts
14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2026 05:19PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Jan 28, 2026 05:19PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 2% | 3% | -1% | +0% |
| Latvia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
Will the United Nations deploy peacekeeping forces to a conflict zone in a new country or territory by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2026 05:20PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Jan 28, 2026 05:20PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | -1% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +1% |
Will any national government publicly declare that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has been achieved within that country by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2026 05:21PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Jan 28, 2026 05:21PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, a measure of U.S. residential home costs, exceed 350 by July 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jul 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2026 05:26PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Jan 28, 2026 05:26PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 34% | 50% | -16% | +0% |
| No | 66% | 50% | +16% | +0% |
Will at least two European NATO members sign new, publicly announced major defense procurement contracts (over €1 billion each) with non-European suppliers by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2026 05:33PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Jan 28, 2026 05:33PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 72% | 89% | -17% | +3% |
| No | 28% | 11% | +17% | -3% |