RAND Forecasting Initiative

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 06, 2025 08:41PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 days	66%	68%	-2%	+1%
30 days	2%	6%	-4%	+0%
31-60 days	6%	6%	+0%	0%
61-90 days	6%	5%	+1%	+0%
91 days or more	20%	16%	+4%	-1%

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 06, 2025 08:41PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025	0%	0%	+0%	0%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Not before 2026	99%	98%	+1%	+0%

Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 06, 2025 08:42PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2025 04:28PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	17%	-2%	-2%
No	85%	83%	+2%	+2%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2025 04:29PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
No	100%	98%	+2%	+0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
21 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2025 04:29PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	Nov 18, 2025 to May 18, 2026	Dec 18, 2025	0%	+2%	-2%
No	98%	Nov 18, 2025 to May 18, 2026	Dec 18, 2025	100%	-2%	+2%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2025 04:29PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 18, 2025 to May 18, 2026	Dec 18, 2025	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Nov 18, 2025 to May 18, 2026	Dec 18, 2025	99%	+0%	+0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 07:36AM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2026	Dec 25, 2025	1%	-1%	-1%
No	100%	Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2026	Dec 25, 2025	99%	+1%	+1%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 07:36AM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2026	Dec 25, 2025	2%	-1%	+0%
No	99%	Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2026	Dec 25, 2025	98%	+1%	+0%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 07:37AM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	3%	3%	+1%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	96%	96%	+0%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

Paul_Rowan

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