RAND Forecasting Initiative

	Past Week	Past Month	Past Year	This Season	All Time
Forecasts	11	52	676	175	1260
Comments	3	29	229	104	428
Questions Forecasted	9	17	38	22	59
Upvotes on Comments By This User	0	6	169	24	314
Definitions

Jump to content

719

Live Russia threatens Nato with nuclear strikes

Key moments

Updated 3 minutes ago

2:50pm

Meloni: Russia’s 3-day ceasefire ‘decisively insufficient’

2:29pm

France says Russia behind a decade of cyber attacks

1:11pm

Russian bombards Ukraine after 3-day ceasefire announcement

11:07am

JD Vance: Ukraine won’t win the war

10:47am

Trump: I’m saving Ukraine from being crushed

Russian children of the 'Yunarmiya' (Young Army) movement compete in Soviet-style games on Tuesday ahead of Victory Day

Russian children of the ‘Yunarmiya’ (Young Army) movement compete in Soviet-style games on Tuesday ahead of Victory Day Credit: Shutterstock

Russia could strike Nato members with nuclear weapons, a senior security official has said.

Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s former prime minister and current deputy of its security council, said Nato’s newest members, which includes Sweden and Finland, could be struck with revenge strikes using nuclear weapons in the event of a conflict.

“The non-aligned status gave them (Finland and Sweden) certain international perks, given their geopolitical position and many other factors,” Medvedev said.

“And now they are part of a bloc hostile to us which means they automatically became a target for our armed forces, including potential retaliatory strikes and even the nuclear component or preventive measures within the framework of a military doctrine.”

Medvedev has styled himself as one of Russia’s most outspoken anti-Western hawks, repeatedly warning that Russia could respond to Western-backed strikes in Ukraine with nuclear weapons.

His comments came after Vladimir Putin announced a surprise three-day ceasefire that will take place between May 8 and 10, when Russia celebrates the end of World War II.

The Kremlin said on Tuesday that Kyiv had not responded to the offer of a ceasefire and that it was unclear whether Ukraine would join the truce.

“It was President Putin who repeatedly said that Russia is ready, without any preconditions, to start the negotiations process,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. “We have not heard a response from the Kyiv regime so far.”

Latest updates

Kieran Kelly.

Iona Cleave

29 April 2025 3:17pm

2:50PM

Meloni: Russia’s 3-day ceasefire ‘decisively insufficient’

Giorgia Meloni, the Italian prime minister, has rebuffed Vladimir Putin’s three-day ceasefire as “decisively insufficient”, calling on Moscow to demonstrate it wants to end the conflict.

“We now support Trump’s efforts and are pleased that [Volodymyr] Zelensky has said he is open to an unconditional ceasefire, showing that Ukraine also wants peace,” Meloni said in an interview with Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera, published Tuesday.

“Now it is Russia that has to prove the same thing. Because the three-day truce announced by Putin for the anniversary of the victory in World War II is a different thing, and decisively insufficient,” she added.

Putin’s proposed a temporary truce on Monday from May 8-11 to mark the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s triumph over Nazi Germany and to coincide with its May 9 Victory Day parade.

Italy's Giorgia Meloni meets with Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Rome today. The pair are expected to discuss Ukraine.

Italy’s Giorgia Meloni meets with Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Rome today. The pair are expected to discuss Ukraine. Credit: AFP

Sponsored advertiser content

This under-the-radar gem in the British Isles is full of history

2:29PM

France says Russia behind a decade of cyber attacks

France on Tuesday accused Russian military intelligence of being behind cyberattacks against the nation over the last decade.

The attacks from Moscow’s hackers include Emmanuel Macron’s 2017 presidential campaign and a TV network in 2015, the foreign ministry said.

Russian military intelligence (GRU) “has been carrying out cyberattacks against France for several years using a method known as APT28,” added Jean-Noel Barrot, the French foreign minister, officially attributing these cyberattacks to the GRU for the first time.

2:14PM

Britain and EU to sign anti-Trump declaration - including Ukraine policies

Downing Street has drafted a proposed joint statement with the EU that commits the UK and EU to rejecting Donald Trump’s most controversial policies.

On the eve of Mr Trump’s 100 days in office, the Government presented Europe with a draft document that insisted on Ukraine’s territorial integrity. It also called for support for the Paris climate agreement and free trade.

Officials drafted the statement as a “geopolitical preamble” to mark Sir Keir Starmer’s reset in relations with Brussels at a summit in London next month. It is the most significant political declaration on Europe since Brexit.

While it does not directly name the US president or his country, the proposed wording commits the UK and EU not to follow some of his major policies.

“We reaffirmed our continued support for Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognised borders,” British officials wrote.

Mr Trump has said he is willing to recognise Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea, which it illegally annexed in 2014, as a price to end the war in Ukraine.

1:54PM

Pictured: A recent Ukrainian war amputee in Kyiv

Yurii, 57, serviceman with an amputation smokes and rests on a bench in central Kyiv,

Yurii, 57, serviceman with an amputation smokes and rests on a bench in central Kyiv, Credit: REUTERS

1:34PM

Russia ‘trying to carve out buffer zone’ in Sumy

Russian troops are trying to carve out a “buffer zone” in Ukraine’s northeastern Sumy region but without substantial success, the regional governor said on Tuesday.

Four border villages were in “the grey zone” due to continuing fighting, Oleh Hryhorov said, denying that those settlements were under Russian control.

Sumy borders Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukraine’s forces launched an incursion last August but have now been all but pushed out, with help from North Korean troops.

On Monday, Vladimir Putin and North Korean officials touted the success of their joint military operations, claiming all Ukrainian troops had left the western Russian region.

1:11PM

Russian bombards Ukraine after 3-day ceasefire announcement

Russia struck civilian areas of Ukraine with drones in another deadly nighttime attack, a day after declaring a 72-hour ceasefire for next week.

The attack damaged homes in Ukraine’s southeastern Dnipropetrovsk region, killing a 12-year-old girl and wounding three others, including a six-year-old, authorities said.

Russia also launched 20 drones and 31 powerful guided bombs at Kharkiv, the second-largest Ukrainian city.

Debris from an intercepted Russian drone started a fire in a neighbourhood of the capital, Kyiv, according to officials.

Volodymyr Zelensky has effectively rejected Vladimir Putin’s three-day truce offer which coincides with Russia’s World War II Victory Day, calling it an attempt to “deceive the United States”.

1:03PM

In pictures: Ukrainian troops train in tough terrain

Ukrainian soldiers train in fast-moving water

Ukrainian soldiers train in fast-moving water Credit: Ukraine's General Staff

A Ukrainian soldier crawls through a muddy river

A Ukrainian soldier crawls through a muddy river Credit: Ukraine's General Staff

Fully-camouflaged troops practice drills in a fighting vehicle

Fully-camouflaged troops practice drills in a fighting vehicle Credit: Ukraine's General Staff

12:15PM

General killed in Moscow prepared Ukraine briefs for Putin

A Russian general who was killed in a car bomb attack in Moscow last week prepared battlefield reports on the situation Ukraine for Vladimir Putin.

Yaroslav Moskalik was a deputy chief of the main operations directorate of Russia’s army and was heavily involved in the planning of military operations.

An obituary for Moskalik revealed he took parts in Minsk talks which were designed to end the war between Ukraine and Russian-backed separatists in Crimea.

He also worked Russia’s military intervention in 2015.

The Russian general was killed in a car bomb attack in Moscow last week

The Russian general was killed in a car bomb attack in Moscow last week Credit: Shutterstock

12:01PM

Kremlin softens stance on Zelensky’s legitimacy

The Kremlin has softened its stance on Volodymyr Zelensky’s legitimacy, saying starting peace negotiations takes precedent.

“Indeed, there are legal issues related to legitimacy, but in this case, starting the peaceful settlement process takes precedence, and the primary thing is to begin this negotiation process,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told journalists.

Moscow has repeatedly questioned the Ukrainian president’s legitimacy given that his term was set to end in May last year. However, the Ukrainian constitution bans election during wartime.

11:37AM

Trump may be slipping off Putin’s hook

Is the latest Russian ceasefire announcement another meaningless gesture, an attempt to appease the US president who seems to have ended his bromance with the dictator in the Kremlin – or a genuine attempt to end the bloodshed in Ukraine? We can all hope it is the latter, but we should be very suspicious.

One factor is likely to be that Russia says it has now retaken all of Kursk oblast. Zelensky has thus lost one of his key bargaining chips, which might increase Putin’s willingness to bargain. Then, Russia has just seen another top general assassinated, virtually on the steps of the Kremlin. One can see why Putin and his close circle may be somewhat spooked by the ease with which the Ukrainian secret service or its proxies are now operating in the Russian capital.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/04/29/russia-ukraine-zelensky-putin-war-latest-news529/

Join the conversation

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/04/29/russia-ukraine-zelensky-putin-war-latest-news529/

Show comments

Plataea479

Steven Goldblatt

About:

No Scores Yet

Relative Brier Score

175

Forecasts

24

Upvotes

Forecasting Calendar

Why do you think you're right?

Why might you be wrong?

Why do you think you're right?

Why might you be wrong?