3rd
Accuracy Rank

Plataea479

Steven Goldblatt

-1.655791

Relative Brier Score

734

Forecasts

166

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 17 77 794 734 1019
Comments 1 17 150 140 285
Questions Forecasted 13 22 40 37 52
Upvotes on Comments By This User 5 20 183 166 251
 Definitions
New Prediction
Plataea479
made their 9th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
14% (-16%)
Togo
59% (+8%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Why do you think you're right?

Senegal and Chad fired France ordered them out of country. Identical pattern to Niger Burkino Faso Central African Republic.

First they fire the French then they get bids from US and Russia Africa Corp.

And if the military Rulers want to get rid of the US, Russia is there, See Niger where US on way out shared a base with Russians on the way in.

So Chad and Senegal are new entrants in extorting military help and Russia does not ask complicated questions or make judgments.

https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20241129-chad-ends-military-cooperation-with-france

https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20241129-senegal-s-leader-says-france-should-close-all-army-bases-in-country


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Why might you be wrong?

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belikewater
made a comment:
Exactly.
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New Badge
Plataea479
earned a new badge:

Top Forecaster - Nov 2024

Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Badge
Plataea479
earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Nov 2024

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
Plataea479
earned a new badge:

Star Commenter - Nov 2024

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deir_ez-Zor_clashes_(2023)

Erdogan and Trump and Putin. Birds of a feather fly together and the recent attack and the looming US election caused me to reevaluate this forecast. 2 key actors are virtually unconstrained and are known to act impulsively.


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deir_ez-Zor_clashes_(2023)


There were repeated clashes between SDF and disaffected Arab groups in this area in 2023. Turkey backed the Arab Groups. The US urged calm.


This is a combustible dynamic situation which Turkiye has recent motivation to reignite.


Trump is unpredictable. 

But Turkiye is otherwise engaged in Syria as hypothesized earlier 

Opposition sources in touch with Turkish intelligence said Turkey had given a green light to the offensive. But Turkish foreign ministry spokesperson Oncu Keceli said Turkey sought to avoid greater instability in the region and had warned that recent attacks undermined de-escalation agreements.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/jihadists-turkish-backed-allies-enter-aleppo-in-lightning-assault-on-syrian-regime/

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Plataea479
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than or equal to 49
0% (0%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
8% (-12%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
81% (+1%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
11% (+11%)
More than or equal to 80
New Prediction
Plataea479
made their 45th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20% (0%)
Yes
Nov 28, 2024 to Nov 28, 2025
80% (0%)
No
Nov 28, 2024 to Nov 28, 2025

With Trump Returning and Hezbollah Weakened, Iran Strikes a Conciliatory Tone https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/28/world/middleeast/iran-shift-trump-hezbollah.html?unlocked_article_code=1.dU4.Etsa.7-xCK7uHiNwD

A free article for you. Iran is cooling it per NYT.

Mullahs sent Larijani to Beirut in mid November to tell Hezbollah to enter cease fire. Stay out of area south of Litani River. Cooperate with election of a new President. 

In short the election Trumped Iran along with Hezbollah defeat for now


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New Prediction
Plataea479
made their 44th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20% (-20%)
Yes
Nov 28, 2024 to Nov 28, 2025
80% (+20%)
No
Nov 28, 2024 to Nov 28, 2025

Lebanon cease fire may yield war or peace.

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