Confirmed previous forecast
-0.539202
Relative Brier Score
541
Forecasts
73
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 28 | 642 | 541 | 1626 |
| Comments | 0 | 15 | 335 | 292 | 616 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 21 | 45 | 37 | 74 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 7 | 123 | 73 | 363 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Western Asia and North African intra-regional exports equal or exceed 24% of total exports in 2025 or 2026, according to UNCTAD data?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Togo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 7, 2025 to May 7, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 7, 2025 to May 7, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
no need, Xi Kim III Putin just celebrated Víctory Day. after 6 tests more testing could cause serious earth quakes.
more underground tests, soon US Up to 1 kiliton and Russia and PRC
but not DPRK
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Kim III is unpredictable.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-5%)
Estonia
1%
(-1%)
Latvia
1%
(-1%)
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
down on all as Lithuania and Poland have all road and rail stopped to Kaliningrad and can strangle It.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Putin gets desperate starts infiltrating little Green Men into Estonia
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Yes
99%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
As time spins on Hamas in Control of Gaza.No force Will go in without Palestian control. For Defense? Syria now has US airforce in Damascus. US bilateral Agreement more likely.
Overlapping GCC, Arab League alliances render It unneccesary.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
At some point, Israel vis a vis Lebanon. Syria, Jordan in flux. No real cease Fire implemented
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Right now there is again a tentative cease power. so why sanction ? countries involved in support of proxies, Egypt UAE have multi dimensional económic relationships with EU and US
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The cease fire could breakdown, again. And EU not going to use weak sanctions package.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
1%
(-32%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
https://monitoring.bbc.co.uk/product/b0004ro1
https://monitoring.bbc.co.uk/product/b0004tf2
Focused on Kiev and NATO
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Georgia coup. By EU supporters new parliament.
I see Armenia related to Azerbaiyán.
The Aliev dictatorship is extremely crítical of Putin and supportive Ukraine. Early Next Years Turkiye troops deploy to Azerbaiyán.
He cant go through Azerbaijan to Armenia.
He can't interfere but is pursuing intense disinformation campaigns in all of the above
Files
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Oct 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Oct 2025
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.