Forecasted Questions
How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 03, 2025 02:27PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Dec 03, 2025 02:27PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 18 | 1% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
| 17 | 3% | 1% | +2% | +0% |
| 16 or fewer | 96% | 99% | -3% | +0% |
Will at least two European NATO members sign new, publicly announced major defense procurement contracts (over €1 billion each) with non-European suppliers by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 02:01PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Dec 04, 2025 02:01PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 82% | 79% | +3% | +6% |
| No | 18% | 21% | -3% | -6% |
Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 02:03PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Dec 04, 2025 02:03PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 10% | -5% | +0% |
| No | 95% | 90% | +5% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 02:04PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Dec 04, 2025 02:04PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 8% | 6% | +2% | +0% |
| Armenia | 3% | 2% | +1% | 0% |
| Georgia | 9% | 3% | +6% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 3% | 1% | +2% | +0% |
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 02:04PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Dec 04, 2025 02:04PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2027 | Mar 4, 2026 | 6% | -2% | 0% |
| No | 96% | Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2027 | Mar 4, 2026 | 94% | +2% | 0% |
Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 02:04PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Dec 04, 2025 02:04PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 02:21PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Dec 04, 2025 02:21PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 98% | +1% | +0% |
Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 02:21PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Dec 04, 2025 02:21PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 3% | +2% | +1% |
| No | 95% | 97% | -2% | -1% |
Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 02:21PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Dec 04, 2025 02:21PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 02:24PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Dec 04, 2025 02:24PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 11% | 19% | -8% | -3% |
| No | 89% | 81% | +8% | +3% |