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RUN_RWC

Robert Nagel
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Political scientist

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Forecasted Questions
Open Closed Resolved

Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 04, 2025 02:25PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 4% 3%
No 96% 97%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 04, 2025 02:25PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2026 Jan 4, 2026 0%
No 99% Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2026 Jan 4, 2026 100%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 04, 2025 02:25PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 2% Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2026 Jan 4, 2026 2%
No 98% Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2026 Jan 4, 2026 98%

Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 04, 2025 02:25PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 4% 7%
No 96% 93%

Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
 10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 04, 2025 02:25PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 04, 2025 02:25PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 8% 3%
Latvia 3% 2%
Lithuania 6% 3%

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Forecast Count:
 20 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 04, 2025 02:26PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 0% 0%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 0% 0%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 0% 0%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 1% 2%
Not before 2026 99% 98%

Will the EU import at least 19 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in the second half of 2025?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 04, 2025 02:27PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 0%
No 100% 100%

Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in at least 20 deaths between 4 November 2025 and 15 January 2026, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 16, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 04, 2025 02:30PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 25%
No 95% 75%

Will any country announce a new national carbon tax or emissions trading system by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 04, 2025 02:30PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 76% 64%
No 24% 37%
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