Confirmed previous forecast
-0.151251
Relative Brier Score
1599
Forecasts
159
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 28 | 112 | 1695 | 1599 | 2222 |
| Comments | 11 | 49 | 672 | 609 | 686 |
| Questions Forecasted | 23 | 45 | 93 | 89 | 97 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 2 | 6 | 184 | 159 | 318 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Togo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
2%
(0%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
98%
(0%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
(0%)
Yes
88%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 4,499
8%
(0%)
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive
80%
(0%)
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive
8%
(0%)
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive
2%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6,000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
5%
(0%)
30 days
5%
(0%)
31-60 days
5%
(0%)
61-90 days
20%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.
0%
(0%)
More than €0 but less than €10 billion
0%
(-8%)
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion
70%
(+20%)
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion
30%
(-12%)
€30 billion or more
Why do you think you're right?
There's another update from our resolution source. No change in the amount of U.S. support and the lowest amount of new aid from European countries since the start of the war. The difference between European nations and the U.S. is now a bit above 23 Billion euros. Data is until October 2025.
https://www.kielinstitut.de/publications/news/ukraine-support-tracker-europe-fails-to-offset-us-aid-drop/
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A surge in the last 3 months? But I don't think that is happening.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-7%)
Yes
95%
(+7%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Reducing after reading more about the topic.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Looks like we're above 20 already.
Why might you be wrong?
N/A