Moving towards zero now that we're approaching the end date of this question.
-0.154393
Relative Brier Score
1494
Forecasts
153
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 21 | 104 | 1735 | 1494 | 2117 |
| Comments | 9 | 49 | 630 | 564 | 641 |
| Questions Forecasted | 21 | 46 | 96 | 89 | 97 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 13 | 207 | 153 | 312 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-3%)
Togo
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
4%
(-4%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
96%
(+4%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?
Hard to see how it could go below 70 in the remainder of the year.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Asteroid strike or something drastic like that.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Yes
92%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 4,499
8%
(0%)
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive
80%
(0%)
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive
8%
(0%)
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive
2%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6,000
Why do you think you're right?
Numbers remain stable
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
5%
(0%)
30 days
5%
(0%)
31-60 days
5%
(0%)
61-90 days
20%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
(0%)
U.S. Entity
35%
(0%)
Non-U.S. Entity
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.
0%
(0%)
More than €0 but less than €10 billion
8%
(0%)
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion
50%
(0%)
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion
42%
(0%)
€30 billion or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Moving closer to consensus, it's probably not as likely as I thought initially.
Why might you be wrong?
Perhaps it is after all