ScottEastman

Scott Eastman
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Forecasted Questions

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2026 08:34PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Moldova 1% 5%
Armenia 2% 2%
Georgia 3% 3%
Kazakhstan 1% 1%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2026 08:53PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 3% 3%
Latvia 1% 2%
Lithuania 2% 2%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2026 09:07PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 7% 7%
No 93% 93%

Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2026 09:20PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 5%
No 98% 95%

Will Delcy Rodríguez be President of Venezuela on 30 April 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 30, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2026 09:24PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 93% 88%
No 7% 12%

Will the Houthis (Ansarallah movement) attack a commercial shipping vessel on the Red Sea between 19 December 2025 and 31 July 2026, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2026 09:29PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 84% 76%
No 16% 24%

Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2026 09:32PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%

Will any national government publicly declare that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has been achieved within that country by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2026 09:51PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

How many Category 3 or higher hurricanes will be recorded in the Atlantic basin by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2026 09:47PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
0 86% 88%
1 11% 11%
2 or more 3% 1%
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