Forecasted Questions
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 11:21AM UTC
(16 days ago)
Nov 30, 2025 11:21AM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Not before 2026 | 100% | 98% | +2% | +1% |
Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 11:36AM UTC
(16 days ago)
Nov 30, 2025 11:36AM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | 16% | -7% | -11% |
| No | 91% | 84% | +7% | +11% |
Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 11:41AM UTC
(16 days ago)
Nov 30, 2025 11:41AM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 11:49AM UTC
(16 days ago)
Nov 30, 2025 11:49AM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 2% | 6% | -4% | +0% |
| Armenia | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
| Georgia | 4% | 3% | +1% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 1% | 1% | +0% | 0% |
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 12:44AM UTC
(15 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 12:44AM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 61% | 68% | -7% | +0% |
| 30 days | 2% | 5% | -3% | +0% |
| 31-60 days | 7% | 5% | +2% | +0% |
| 61-90 days | 7% | 5% | +2% | +0% |
| 91 days or more | 23% | 16% | +7% | +1% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
24 Forecasts
24 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 12:49AM UTC
(15 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 12:49AM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026 | Jan 1, 2026 | 0% | +1% | -1% |
| No | 99% | Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026 | Jan 1, 2026 | 100% | -1% | +1% |
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:15AM UTC
(15 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 01:15AM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 7% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 92% | 93% | -1% | +0% |
Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:25AM UTC
(15 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 01:25AM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 7% | -4% | +0% |
| No | 97% | 93% | +4% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:44AM UTC
(15 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 01:44AM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 2% | 3% | -1% | 0% |
| Latvia | 0% | 2% | -2% | 0% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
What will the average employment rate in OECD countries be in 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:51AM UTC
(15 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 01:51AM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 62% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 62% but less than 66% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 66% but less than 70% | 2% | 3% | -1% | -1% |
| More than or equal to 70% but less than 74% | 98% | 96% | +2% | +1% |
| More than or equal to 74% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |