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| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 14 | 37 | 23 | 114 |
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Star Commenter - Feb 2025
Why do you think you're right?
My friend @DimaKlenchin has argued convincingly that this is very unlikely, but I'm going to double all my forecasts for the Trump Factor. What if the announcement comes out from Washington that only NATO member states spending 4% of more of GDP on defense will enjoy US defense commitments? And Lithuania struggles to get there in time?
Why might you be wrong?
Putin is more predictable than Trump right now, but neither are especially susceptible to base-rating!
Why do you think you're right?
While we can compute base rates for DPRK nuclear tests/nuclear tests during US presidential transitions/nuclear tests following ICBM tests/etc., I worry these will be less informative in the Trump 2.0 era. The President breaks the rules! No other US president ever met with the DPRK leader. No other US president entered the DMZ.
Therefore, what Kim Jong Un must be thinking right now is beyond my ken. Is he waiting for a personal note from Trump, as happened 3 years ago? Or is he thinking about a nuclear test as a starting move in negotiations? Does his alliance with Russia make him less likely to roil the waters, or does it make him feel safer in doing so?
Why might you be wrong?
Still waiting to see what US policy toward the DPRK/Asia will be. If "policy" towards Ukraine is any guide, then nothing has settled down yet and we're still on a roller coaster.
Why do you think you're right?
Really, it depends on the day. Few things are going to impact Apple share prices...they sell great products worldwide, have been doing so for decades, and are not going anywhere before June.
Why might you be wrong?
Lots of things could upset NVIDIA share prices...turmoil between Taiwan and China, Deepseek 2.0, Trump tariffs, etc.
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?
The resolution criteria require someone to say the word "war"...which seems an arbitrary threshold to me.
Why do you think you're right?
From an actuarial perspective, Khamenei’s reign is almost certainly in its final years [https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/will-irans-next-supreme-leader-be-last-khamenei-akbar-ganji?check_logged_in=1]. He will be 86-years old in April. An 85-year old American male has a 10.5% chance of dying in the next year. This plus the chance of incapacitation forcing resignation, balanced against presumption that he is getting the best health care possible, leads me to go with the actuarial tables, plus 2 for consistent reports of real health issues including a previous bout with cancer..
Why might you be wrong?
Iran's Assembly of Experts and Khameini himself might decide a transition is needed sooner to provide political stability during a time of regional turbulence.
Why do you think you're right?
A 72-year old American male has a 3.1% chance of dying in the next year. Assuming Putin has similar prospects. This plus the chance of incapacitation forcing resignation or palace coup because of failures in Ukraine, balanced against presumption that he is getting the best health care possible, leads me to go with the actuarial tables. I do not see assassination as likely.
Why might you be wrong?
To account for shrinking time windows, moving to 1%. .
Why do you think you're right?
@o-maverick's great rationale!
Why might you be wrong?
I'm at coin-toss levels of probability, and half the time the coin lands on tails.