Confirmed previous forecast
-0.221332
Relative Brier Score
276
Forecasts
34
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 5 | 16 | 276 | 276 | 276 |
| Comments | 0 | 3 | 209 | 209 | 209 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 12 | 40 | 40 | 40 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 34 | 34 | 34 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
1%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
99%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 10, 2025 to May 10, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 10, 2025 to May 10, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Togo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 10, 2025 to May 10, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Nov 10, 2025 to May 10, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Less than $21.0 billion
35%
(0%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
32%
(0%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
15%
(0%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
3%
(0%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
19
0%
18
0%
17
100%
16 or fewer
Why do you think you're right?
I'm jumping on the statis bandwagon.
I think Germany and the US are out. Japan [1] and South Korea rely on the US for defense and therefore seem unlikely to recognize Palestine.
The PM of Italy recently stated that Italy would only support statehood if all Israeli hostages are released and Hamas is excluded from governing [2]. The former has been achieved (for living hostages), the latter has not.
The Israel-Hamas ceasefire is more-or-less holding, and the issue has probably faded from the news in many areas. I'm guessing that a lot of governments feel less pressure from citizens to recognize statehood now.
It seems unlikely that 2+ of these countries will recognize Palestine in the next 3 months.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Some major change in the Israel-Hamas conflict that puts more countries under pressure from their citizens? Also, I could be missing information about discussions underway to recognize statehood in 2+ of these counties.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
1%
(-2%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
99%
(+2%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Passage of time, and no news of negotiation or imminent collapse of one side.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Still almost 2 months--enough time for a ceasefire that would meet the criteria.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 3, 2025 to May 3, 2027
90%
(0%)
No
Nov 3, 2025 to May 3, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
Files