allthingsthatare

The last time with lethal conflict along the border looks like it was in 2008-11. China, the US, and ASEAN are all pushing for peace. So far, there has been 1 fatality that would count toward this question. There are <2 months left before resolution, so the timeframe is short.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/11/13/cambodia-evacuates-hundreds-from-disputed-thai-border-as-tensions-reignite

A Cambodian village was evacuated after 3 people were injured and 1 person was killed after a gunfight between soldiers from Cambodia and Thailand.

Thailand accused Cambodia of laying new landmines. Thailand suspended its participation in the ceasefire it signed in late October (the Trump one), and said it would not release 18 Cambodian soldiers as scheduled.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/asean-observers-suspend-ceasefire-verification-after-explosion-on-thai-side-cambodia/3747814

ASEAN observers suspended ceasefire verification after an explosion on the Thai side.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/24/world/asia/cambodia-thailand-conflict-timeline.html

2008-11

"Military fighting has broken out intermittently since 2008. The last time tensions turned deadly was in 2011....The two nations declared a cease-fire after seven days of fighting killed at least 15 people and displaced tens of thousands of civilians."

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/old-borders-new-battles-thailand-cambodia-and-unfinished-war

"In 2008, tensions over the Preah Vihear Temple flared again, after Cambodia successfully had it classified as a UNESCO World Heritage Site. Thai nationalists accused the Cambodian government of using the UN to further parochial territorial claims. From 2008 to 2011, a series of violent skirmishes erupted, killing dozens of soldiers on both sides and displacing thousands of civilians."

China, the US, and other countries in ASEAN have a stake in bringing about peace.

https://www.asiamediacentre.org.nz/thailand-and-cambodia-s-border-woes-break-out-again-despite-ceasefire

After the suspension of the ceasefire, weapons on both sides were moved closer to the border.

The US is using tariffs to lean on both countries.

The RSF has consolidated power in the east of the country and is now pushing west. Progress is contested by the SAF. The push could be directed toward Khartoum, or toward other areas like Omdurman.

There are peace talks including a proposed ceasefire, but these seem unlikely to stick unless pressure is ramped up.

I don't think the SAF will give up the capital without a fight, and if it looks like the RSF is going to take Khartoum, maybe some of SAF's external allies (Russia?) will give it more aid.

The timeline is very short--only 4 months.

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/11/07/africa/sudan-conflict-foreign-influence-intl-cmd

The RSF has agreed to a humanitarian truce proposed by the US, UAE, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. The UAE appears to have been one of the RSF's big foreign backers, primarily to control gold and other natural resources.

The Wagner group had been supplying the RSF with missiles, but the Wagner group has now been brought more under the control of the Russian government, which is negotiating with the SAF for a port on the Red Sea. (So it seems unlikely to continue to supply the RSF).

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/sudans-rsf-agrees-us-proposal-humanitarian-ceasefire-2025-11-06/

The humanitarian ceasefire would be for a 3-month truce followed by a permanent ceasefire.

Both sides have agreed to various ceasefires over the course of the war. None have succeeded.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/27/africa/sudan-rsf-captures-el-fasher-base-intl

The RSF captured El Fasher, consolidating its hold in Darfur, in the west part of Sudan. It also recent captured a city in North Kordofan, the state between Darfur and Khartoum.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/11/15/sudans-army-captures-two-areas-in-north-kordofan-as-rsf-burns-more-bodies

The SAF recently recaptured 2 areas in North Kordofan. Fighting is expected to continue in this area in the next few weeks, moving east (toward Khartoum).

The SAF has refused the proposed ceasefire. Both sides look like they are preparing to continue fighting.

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/sudans-rsf-agrees-us-proposal-humanitarian-ceasefire-2025-11-06/

RSF is pushing eastward: "Intense battles are expected to continue across the Kordofan region in central Sudan over the coming weeks, with the RSF and government forces ignoring a ceasefire proposal presented by the United States and regional stakeholders."

The RSF is trying to take the city of el-Obeid, which contains a army airbase. This is a buffer area for Khartoum.