Confirmed previous forecast
-0.059328
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 12 | 23 | 294 | 294 | 294 |
| Comments | 3 | 5 | 214 | 214 | 214 |
| Questions Forecasted | 12 | 14 | 42 | 42 | 42 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 34 | 34 | 34 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
10%
(0%)
30 days
9%
(0%)
31-60 days
10%
(0%)
61-90 days
11%
(0%)
91 days or more
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Moldova
4%
(0%)
Armenia
4%
(0%)
Georgia
4%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0%
(-1%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
100%
(+1%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There is still time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast will expire on Jan 8, 2026
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 8, 2025 to Jun 8, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Dec 8, 2025 to Jun 8, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-2%)
Togo
Why do you think you're right?
time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
still time left
Files
New Prediction
This forecast will expire on Jan 8, 2026
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 8, 2025 to Jun 8, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 8, 2025 to Jun 8, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Less than $21.0 billion
35%
(0%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
32%
(0%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
15%
(0%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
3%
(0%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Recently 1 Thai soldier and 4 Cambodian civilians were killed. I think this raises the total to 6.
Thailand is trying to cripple Cambodia's military capacity.
Cambodia has said that it has not retaliated.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thai-army-says-air-strikes-launched-along-disputed-border-area-with-cambodia-2025-12-08/
The peace agreement is now threatened. Trump might want to push the 2 counties back to the negotiating table.
Thailand has the more powerful military, so maybe Cambodia will continue to not retaliate.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/12/07/trump-thailand-cambodia-peace-deal-under-threat/
Why might you be wrong?
This could escalate quickly.