Confirmed previous forecast
-0.225273
Relative Brier Score
302
Forecasts
37
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 6 | 308 | 302 | 308 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 219 | 218 | 219 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 5 | 42 | 42 | 42 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 37 | 37 | 37 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
19
0%
(0%)
18
0%
(0%)
17
100%
(0%)
16 or fewer
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
99%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Decaying partly due to time.
The Sudanese Army is trying to regain control of Kordofan (in central Sudan) and Darfur (west) [1]. This would seem to be pushing the RSF away from Khartoum, which is to the north and east of the current fighting (I think). The army has prevented the RSF from attacking North Kordofan's capital [1]. The government has returned to Khartoum from Port Sudan [1, 2].
[1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/12/the-sudanese-army-is-renewing-a-military-effort-to-retake-kordofan-darfur
[2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/13/rsf-drone-attack-kills-27-in-southeast-sudan-report
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It is difficult to find recent or reliable news on this conflict. A lot of the information seems to be drawn from statements from the government.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Moldova
4%
(0%)
Armenia
4%
(0%)
Georgia
4%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
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