In addition to what has been said, operations towards the capital might take place, but the deadline is just too tight. Strategically, it would make more sense to consolidate the control of the Heglig oilfield before taking up such an ambitious advance towards Khartoum.
0.229469
Relative Brier Score
284
Forecasts
15
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 5 | 32 | 291 | 284 | 915 |
| Comments | 5 | 13 | 157 | 154 | 196 |
| Questions Forecasted | 4 | 28 | 54 | 52 | 99 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 1 | 16 | 15 | 109 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
Yes
94%
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Highly unlikely. The cut-off date is around 100 days from today, and regulation hurdles will for sure take significantly much longer to sort out.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NA.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(+24%)
Yes
1%
(-24%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
The conflict is clearly escalating.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NA.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
(+37%)
Yes
25%
(-37%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
More likely than not at this point.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Swift meditation might take place.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
38%
(+35%)
Yes
62%
(-35%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating due to the surge of violence - 10 casualties reported as of today.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
This conflict could potentially die down in the upcoming days with no more deaths.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
19
0%
(-1%)
18
1%
(-6%)
17
99%
(+7%)
16 or fewer
Why do you think you're right?
Aligning with the crowd.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NA.
Files
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Nov 2025
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
Why do you think you're right?
Decreasing due to the tight deadline.
Why might you be wrong?
NA.