Rutte is hellbent on it, there's tremendous pressure from Washington, and Europe realizes they may be facing both Russian revanchism and at least partial U.S. withdrawal/drawdown in support. Plus, the EU has lifted debt restrictions on defense spending, making it more politically palatable.
1.323592
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
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| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Quickfire Forecasts
Most Active Topics:
Russia-Europe
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
Yes
15%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It's 32 sovereign nations, something can always go wrong.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Last year EU had already dipped below 15bcm/quarter of gas imports from Russia, and discussions are under way to both wean EU off any Russian energy imports and to put greater economic pressure on Russia, both of which point to decreased exports.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Bad weather. Some sort of terror attack or natural disaster that targets/harms LNG export facilities abroad or import facilities in the EU. An EU country (like Hungary or Slovakia) going rogue and opening the spigots.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?
If U.S. doesn't withdraw forces from Europe. If Ukraine wins.