Confirmed previous forecast
0.035142
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 2 | 139 | 137 | 139 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 99 | 99 | 99 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 2 | 31 | 31 | 31 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will at least two European NATO members sign new, publicly announced major defense procurement contracts (over €1 billion each) with non-European suppliers by 31 July 2026?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Yes
0%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
19
0%
(0%)
18
0%
(0%)
17
100%
(0%)
16 or fewer
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(+65%)
Yes
10%
(-65%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
One source mentions 10 already and the conflict seems to be escalating. With the amount of time left ten more casualties seems likely
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Another peace deal
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-35%)
Yes
100%
(+35%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating due to crowd
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Short time lofe
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(+25%)
Yes
75%
(-25%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Adjusting due to breaking news that conflict is erupting again.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If the Trump administration cannot clamp down on this quickly, 20 casualties could be surpassed quickly.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The first conflict had about 38-45 deaths so we are asking if there will be a conflict about half as intense in the next two-ish months.
Trump is currently overseeing a peace deal between the two countries and despite some hostage negotiation hang ups, both sides are withdrawing heavy weapons from the border. This question is effectively a question of whether this will hold for the next two months and I think they likelihood is almost certainly yes.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If conflict followed the rules of pure reason, there probably wouldn't be conflict. But here we are, and one well aimed PRG at fully loaded cargo truck full of Soldiers is all it would take to resolve this yes.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Yes
0%
No
Why do you think you're right?
This is a placeholder for now but NATO spending is increasing there are many friendly non-European arms industries ready to fill the gap. I.E. the US and Korea, Israel, Japan etc.
This seems like a no brainer with the timelines involved and could resolve any day now, so I'll put this in now and see how the landscape changes.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NATO prioritizes European suppliers for major weapon systems.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
19
0%
18
0%
17
100%
16 or fewer
Why do you think you're right?
This is a placeholder forecast until the next G20 leaders summit at the end of November in South Africa. In my view there is a higher possibility that recognition statuses would change around that time, but I think the likelihood than anything major changes is low in the next three months. There just isn't much time for this to happen naturally.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
On the other hand - if the cease fire settlements take hold in Israel and there is an actual no kidding peace deal on the table... who knows. We may wake up one morning to a globally recognized two state solution and 100% recognition. I'll be watching the Palestinian/Israeli negotiations and news leading up to and following the next summit.
Files