| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 4 | 134 | 134 | 134 |
| Comments | 0 | 4 | 96 | 96 | 96 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 4 | 31 | 31 | 31 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Definitions | |||||
This is a placeholder for now but NATO spending is increasing there are many friendly non-European arms industries ready to fill the gap. I.E. the US and Korea, Israel, Japan etc.
This seems like a no brainer with the timelines involved and could resolve any day now, so I'll put this in now and see how the landscape changes.
NATO prioritizes European suppliers for major weapon systems.
This is a placeholder forecast until the next G20 leaders summit at the end of November in South Africa. In my view there is a higher possibility that recognition statuses would change around that time, but I think the likelihood than anything major changes is low in the next three months. There just isn't much time for this to happen naturally.
On the other hand - if the cease fire settlements take hold in Israel and there is an actual no kidding peace deal on the table... who knows. We may wake up one morning to a globally recognized two state solution and 100% recognition. I'll be watching the Palestinian/Israeli negotiations and news leading up to and following the next summit.
Q3 is already on the books at 8,167 cubic meters which means in order to get over 19 million the EU needs to import at least 10,833. That is entirely possible considering historical trends for imports in Q4 over the past few years have been:
2024: 14,125 (enough to resolve yes)
2023: 12,505 (enough to resolve yes)
2022: 11,409 (enough to resolve yes)
However, I do not think it is as likely as the past year has seen a dramatic drop in imports. Considering that quarterly import totals are all relatively close, and the longer the war goes on the more likely the EU will have brought on alternative sources of power, my guess is that the 2025 Q4 will max out at the 2025 Q1 level of 10,024. This is lower than the required limit but very close, so close that I am inclined to take the under.
My gut instinct said there was no way this happens but the data points to the possibility of another buzzer beater, and while I still feel most confident in the under, I will need to monitor relevant macro trends.
For example, if there is a very cold winter or the war in Ukraine ends, or part of a peace negotiation includes gas export deals with the Russians. I do not think the temperatures will be overwhelmingly relevant but the war ending could have a large and immediate impact.
This is a long range forecast at this stage so a lot could happen. Thank goodness for the process because otherwise I would have been way out over my skis.
Already at 1514 so 1499 is mathematically eliminated, I don't see another 140 cases in the next week though so I would say this is most likely resolved.
Big outbreaks and future revisions could pull it left, I'll monitor.
Why do you think you're right?
The first conflict had about 38-45 deaths so we are asking if there will be a conflict about half as intense in the next two-ish months.
Trump is currently overseeing a peace deal between the two countries and despite some hostage negotiation hang ups, both sides are withdrawing heavy weapons from the border. This question is effectively a question of whether this will hold for the next two months and I think they likelihood is almost certainly yes.
Why might you be wrong?
If conflict followed the rules of pure reason, there probably wouldn't be conflict. But here we are, and one well aimed PRG at fully loaded cargo truck full of Soldiers is all it would take to resolve this yes.