RAND Forecasting Initiative

What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 10, 2025 10:46PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $21.0 billion	0%	16%	-16%	+8%
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion	0%	34%	-34%	+2%
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion	0%	12%	-12%	-7%
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion	0%	13%	-13%	-4%
More than or equal to $25.0 billion	100%	25%	+75%	+2%

Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 10, 2025 10:55PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	100%	34%	+66%	-10%
No	0%	66%	-66%	+10%

How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 10, 2025 10:58PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.	0%	0%	+0%	-2%
More than €0 but less than €10 billion	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion	0%	6%	-6%	+0%
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion	50%	49%	+1%	+6%
€30 billion or more	50%	44%	+6%	-4%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 27, 2025 07:07PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	7%	-4%	+0%
No	97%	93%	+4%	+0%

Will any major international non-governmental research funders implement specific policies restricting or requiring oversight of mirror biology research by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 27, 2025 08:29PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	75%	45%	+30%	+2%
No	25%	55%	-30%	-2%

Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 27, 2025 10:55PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	14%	-14%	+0%
No	100%	87%	+14%	+0%

Will mirror organisms be formally addressed as a biosecurity concern in official proceedings of at least one of the following international forums (BWC Review Conference, G7/G20 Health/Science ministerial meetings, WHO forums) by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 03, 2025 07:10PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	100%	63%	+37%	-1%
No	0%	37%	-37%	+1%

Will government agencies in the U.S., EU, or UK classify mirror biology research under dual-use oversight mechanisms by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 03, 2025 07:31PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	100%	48%	+52%	+1%
No	0%	52%	-52%	-1%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2025 01:48AM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 7, 2025 to May 7, 2026	Dec 7, 2025	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Nov 7, 2025 to May 7, 2026	Dec 7, 2025	99%	+0%	+0%

Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2025 01:48AM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	10%	-10%	-2%
No	100%	90%	+10%	+2%

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