RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jul 24, 2025 04:00PM UTC	Will the share of battery-electric vehicles among new registered cars in the EU exceed 20% by the second quarter of 2025?	-0.002374
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?	-0.000023
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?	-0.000003
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will the U.S. Congress pass a budget reconciliation bill before 1 July 2025?	0.109072
Jun 25, 2025 02:00AM UTC	Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic mayoral primary for New York City on 24 June 2025 in five rounds or fewer?	-0.17924
Jun 21, 2025 11:50PM UTC	Will the United States launch a kinetic strike against Iran before 1 August 2025?	0.0
May 31, 2025 05:00PM UTC	On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?	0.004319
May 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 28, 2025 and May 28, 2025)	0.00192

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