0.134422
Relative Brier Score
62
Forecasts
6
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 14 | 307 | 251 | 1173 |
Comments | 0 | 1 | 50 | 42 | 471 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 14 | 66 | 43 | 171 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 101 | 83 | 471 |
Definitions |
Why do you think you're right?
Nvidia has taken the lead since the last time I looked at this, and they have intense growth as far as the eye can see.
Why might you be wrong?
It's not like I have a unique insight about Nvidia here, so if they have any sort of turn of bad luck, they could have a sharp downturn.
Probably should zero this out soon, but I don't want to be overconfident.
As Warren Buffett puts it, "You can't produce a baby in a month by getting nine women pregnant." There are a lot of complexities, a lot of moving parts in the R&D to get to that point, and the timeframe is likely just too short.
I'm way below the Crowd, so I'd better move up a little. The Chinese models still have a long way to go to break into the top 3, however,.
The plan is still November 2025. (source) It would really be extraordinary if the elections were moved forward, so I'll have this as under 1%.
I don't think this is happening anytime soon. A couple recent stories:
Saudi crown prince accuses Israel of committing ‘collective genocide’ in Gaza
Oman rejects Israel normalisation, slams 'barbaric war on Gaza'