21st
Accuracy Rank

johnnycaffeine

John Bash
About:
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0.134422

Relative Brier Score

62

Forecasts

6

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 14 307 251 1173
Comments 0 1 50 42 471
Questions Forecasted 0 14 66 43 171
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 101 83 471
 Definitions
New Prediction
johnnycaffeine
made their 17th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
4% (0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
3% (0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
johnnycaffeine
made their 14th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Nvidia has taken the lead since the last time I looked at this, and they have intense growth as far as the eye can see. 

Files
Why might you be wrong?

It's not like I have a unique insight about Nvidia here, so if they have any sort of turn of bad luck, they could have a sharp downturn.

Files
New Prediction

Probably should zero this out soon, but I don't want to be overconfident.

Files
New Prediction
johnnycaffeine
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Estonia
0% (0%)
Latvia
1% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction

As Warren Buffett puts it, "You can't produce a baby in a month by getting nine women pregnant." There are a lot of complexities, a lot of moving parts in the R&D to get to that point, and the timeframe is likely just too short.

Files
New Prediction
johnnycaffeine
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10% (+4%)
Yes
Nov 20, 2024 to Nov 20, 2025
90% (-4%)
No
Nov 20, 2024 to Nov 20, 2025

I'm way below the Crowd, so I'd better move up a little. The Chinese models still have a long way to go to break into the top 3, however,.

Files
New Prediction
johnnycaffeine
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (-1%)
Yes
100% (+1%)
No

The plan is still November 2025. (source) It would really be extraordinary if the elections were moved forward, so I'll have this as under 1%.  

Files
New Prediction
johnnycaffeine
made their 17th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (-1%)
Kuwait
0% (-1%)
Oman
0% (-1%)
Qatar
0% (-1%)
Saudi Arabia
0% (-1%)
Tunisia
Files
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