Hasn't happened.
0.118316
Relative Brier Score
43
Forecasts
4
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 43 | 43 | 43 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 41 | 41 | 41 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Quickfire Forecasts,
Geopolitical Security,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Russia-Europe
New Badge
Star Commenter - Sep 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+1%)
Less than or equal to 1
0%
(-1%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NA
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
0%
(-20%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
100%
(+20%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
Updating based on available data, currently at 1514 cases.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NA
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
20%
(-59%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
80%
(+59%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
As of 9/16, there have been 1,491 measles cases, so we are right on the line between buckets. It's very likely that there will be more than 9 cases in the next two weeks.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The last week of data only reported 1 case. If that holds, we will not cross over.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Yes
99%
(+4%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating based on time remaining.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Still a few weeks for this to occur.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(+20%)
Less than or equal to 1
1%
(-20%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Revising my initial forecast based on the time that has passed and the time remaining. Statistically, September 10th is the peak of hurricane season, so the fact that we have not seen major hurricanes until now does not give us useful information on what to expect from the next few weeks, especially since hurricane activity is expected to accelerate in the second half of September. I wish the buckets had been structured as <1, 1, 2, 2+ to make this a little more interesting. There has been only one instance of two separate category 3+ hurricanes making landfall in the continental United States in the second half of September (Ivan and Jeanne in 2004). Thus, one shouldn't rule out the between 2 and 3 bucket completely at this point (9/12).
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It is still possible, if extremely unlikely, for there to be two major hurricanes that make landfall in the next few weeks.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-14%)
Yes
99%
(+14%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Adjusting based on remaining time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Three weeks remain for this to occur.
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Aug 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
Why do you think you're right?
Hasn't happened.
Why might you be wrong?
NA