Confirmed previous forecast
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
119
Forecasts
24
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 27 | 443 | 119 | 1521 |
| Comments | 0 | 26 | 162 | 67 | 505 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 27 | 72 | 37 | 235 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 2 | 99 | 24 | 232 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Oracle - Platinum
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard 12 months in a row.
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Top Forecaster - Apr 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
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Power Forecaster - Apr 2025
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
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Star Commenter - Apr 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
60%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2025 to Oct 30, 2025
40%
(0%)
No
Apr 30, 2025 to Oct 30, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(-9%)
Yes
92%
(+9%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
I'm tweaking my forecast a bit down to approximate the pro's average.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Unexpected things happen.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming my previous forecast.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If any of those countries present a realistic chance of joining NATO, then Russia could consider invading them.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
5%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming my previous forecast.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If any of those countries present a realistic chance of joining NATO, then Russia could consider invading them.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming my previous forecast.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If the US-China competition spun off the commercial into a military one, this could happen earlier than expected.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-5%)
Yes
90%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Tweaking it down a bit. The US-China competition is intensifying.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The world is a mess. But the US-China competition is certain, and it seems to be driving Huawei away from the Open RAN standards.
Files