o-maverick

About:
Show more

No Scores Yet

Relative Brier Score

119

Forecasts

24

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 27 443 119 1521
Comments 0 26 162 67 505
Questions Forecasted 0 27 72 37 235
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 2 99 24 232
 Definitions
New Badge
o-maverick
earned a new badge:

Oracle - Platinum

Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard 12 months in a row.
New Badge
o-maverick
earned a new badge:

Top Forecaster - Apr 2025

Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Badge
o-maverick
earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Apr 2025

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
o-maverick
earned a new badge:

Star Commenter - Apr 2025

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
o-maverick
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
60% (0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2025 to Oct 30, 2025
40% (0%)
No
Apr 30, 2025 to Oct 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

I'm tweaking my forecast a bit down to approximate the pro's average.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Unexpected things happen.

Files
New Prediction
o-maverick
made their 14th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Estonia
1% (0%)
Latvia
1% (0%)
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?

Confirming my previous forecast.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

If any of those countries present a realistic chance of joining NATO, then Russia could consider invading them.

Files
New Prediction
o-maverick
made their 13th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
5% (0%)
Moldova
1% (0%)
Armenia
5% (0%)
Georgia
1% (0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?

Confirming my previous forecast.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

If any of those countries present a realistic chance of joining NATO, then Russia could consider invading them.

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Confirming my previous forecast.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

If the US-China competition spun off the commercial into a military one, this could happen earlier than expected.

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Tweaking it down a bit. The US-China competition is intensifying.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

The world is a mess. But the US-China competition is certain, and it seems to be driving Huawei away from the Open RAN standards.

Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username