Confirmed previous forecast.
-1.766587
Relative Brier Score
423
Forecasts
106
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 47 | 47 | 479 | 423 | 1357 |
| Comments | 19 | 19 | 59 | 56 | 394 |
| Questions Forecasted | 47 | 47 | 101 | 77 | 226 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 11 | 13 | 108 | 106 | 202 |
| Definitions | |||||
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Top Forecaster - Nov 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
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Power Forecaster - Nov 2024
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
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Star Commenter - Nov 2024
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
7%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(-19%)
Yes
85%
(+19%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Huawei holds a dominant position in the global telecom market with roughly one-third market share and has consistently opposed open RAN initiatives, viewing them as potentially threatening to their competitive advantage. Huawei has little incentive to embrace an open architecture that could erode their competitive edge by enabling interoperability with rivals. Their success without O-RAN membership suggests they can sustain growth independently.
The recent election of Trump, who is expected to escalate tech restrictions against China, further reduces the likelihood of collaboration. Additionally, Huawei's explicit rejection of open RAN speculation in February 2024 signals their clear strategic direction. The company's strong market position and technological leadership in 5G give them little incentive to join an alliance that promotes interoperability with competitors.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I might be wrong if:
- Severe market pressures force Huawei to reconsider their stance to maintain global competitiveness
- China strategically decides to increase its influence within O-RAN by having Huawei join
- Technological developments make interoperability unavoidable, even for market leaders
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(-35%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
70%
(+35%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
5%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
I'm adjusting the odds based on the crowd's analysis, particularly @Rene 's forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
(0%)
Yes
40%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast.
Files
Confirmed previous forecast.