185th

Accuracy Rank

o-maverick

About:

Brazilian lawyer, tech enthusiast, and aspiring diplomat.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/otaviomayrink/?locale=en_US

Top Forecaster - Jun 2025

Oracle - Platinum

Top Forecaster - Apr 2025

Top Forecaster - Mar 2025

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2.757281

Relative Brier Score

363

Forecasts

16

Upvotes

Forecasting Activity

Forecasting Calendar

	Past Week	Past Month	Past Year	This Season	All Time
Forecasts	39	47	450	405	1807
Comments	0	8	180	136	574
Questions Forecasted	39	47	96	78	276
Upvotes on Comments By This User	4	7	62	57	265
Definitions

New Badge

o-maverick earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Nov 2025

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.

New Badge

o-maverick earned a new badge:

Star Commenter - Nov 2025

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).

New Prediction

Will the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, a measure of U.S. residential home costs, exceed 350 by July 2027?

o-maverick made their 3rd forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

25% (0%)

Yes

75% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Dec 01, 2025 01:46AM UTC

New Prediction

Will any major international non-governmental research funders implement specific policies restricting or requiring oversight of mirror biology research by 31 December 2030?

o-maverick made their 3rd forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

65% (0%)

Yes

35% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Dec 01, 2025 01:46AM UTC

New Prediction

Will mirror reagents or products be added to the Australia Group export control list or national controlled biological agent lists in the U.S., UK, or Canada by 31 December 2032?

o-maverick made their 3rd forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

65% (0%)

Yes

35% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Dec 01, 2025 01:46AM UTC

New Prediction

Will government agencies in the U.S., EU, or UK classify mirror biology research under dual-use oversight mechanisms by 31 December 2030?

o-maverick made their 5th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

73% (0%)

Yes

27% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Dec 01, 2025 01:46AM UTC

New Prediction

Will mirror organisms be formally addressed as a biosecurity concern in official proceedings of at least one of the following international forums (BWC Review Conference, G7/G20 Health/Science ministerial meetings, WHO forums) by 31 December 2030?

o-maverick made their 5th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

90% (0%)

Yes

10% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Dec 01, 2025 01:46AM UTC

New Prediction

Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?

o-maverick made their 5th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

75% (0%)

Yes

25% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Dec 01, 2025 01:46AM UTC

New Prediction

Will scientists be able to assemble a ribosome in vitro, composed entirely of synthetic proteins and RNA, without the use of cell-derived materials by 2030?

o-maverick made their 5th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

69% (0%)

Yes

31% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Dec 01, 2025 01:46AM UTC

New Prediction

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

o-maverick made their 10th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

8% (0%)

Yes

92% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Dec 01, 2025 01:46AM UTC