Blockade by far the most likely, but still unlikely in the next 6 months. However, Russia facing low consequences in their aggression in Ukraine may reduce the risk China sees in an attack.
-0.005019
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Emerging Technology
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 12, 2025 02:26AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
Yes
Mar 12, 2025 to Sep 12, 2025
97%
No
Mar 12, 2025 to Sep 12, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Would see visible signs of military buildup and aggression if an attack were planned within 6 months.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
Yes
96%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Currently 3rd, about 30% behind the Apple for first place, unlikely to go up so disproportionately in a relatively short time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Nvidia is highly volatile and can swing trades significantly on changes in the AI landscape
Files
Why do you think you're right?
US is pushing hard for at least a ceasefire, Ukraine has recently agreed to a 30d
Why might you be wrong?
Russia lacks incentive other than consolidating gains if US is not interested in continuing support, unclear what concessions US is asking for