Confirming previous forecast.
1.316659
Relative Brier Score
94
Forecasts
18
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 94 | 94 | 94 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 92 | 92 | 92 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Quickfire Forecasts,
Geopolitical Security,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Russia-Europe
New Badge
Star Commenter - Sep 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A major crisis or conflict breaking out overnight that requires troops to be pulled from the peninsula
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
0%
(0%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
100%
(0%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
Final forecast confirming previous forecast. There have been no major new outbreaks since my last forecast, and the chance of cases exceeding the 1,649 threshold is basically 0.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A major outbreak occurs out of nowhere overnight.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Passage of time, small number of days left in forecasting window, and lack of significant new developments that might elevate tensions between the two countries suggest that this question is all but certain to resolve in "no."
Files
Why might you be wrong?
An unforeseen event, such as an accident on the border, that leads to confrontation could lead to fatalities on one or both sides, though this is extremely unlikely.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1
1%
(0%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming previous forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NA
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Pushing probability of this resolving as "no" to 100% based on passage of time and very short window left in forecasting window (with no events suggesting renewed hostilities between the two countries)
Files
Why might you be wrong?
An accidental crisis that escalates into full blown conflict in the span of a few days could hypothetically still occur, but this is exceedingly unlikely.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
No discussion of this by the current administration in the week leading up to the question's resolution, so the withdrawal or intent to withdraw is therefore extremely unlikely to happen in the next 6 days.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A major crisis in the region could cause a sudden withdrawal of troops, but this is very unlikely.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
0%
(-5%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
100%
(+6%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
0%
(-1%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
As of Sept 23, CDC is reporting 1,514 cases, so it's extremely likely the final number will fall within the 1500-1649 range.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A major new outbreak in the next 6 days could push the number past the the 1649 threshold, though this is extremely unlikely at this point.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming previous forecast
Why might you be wrong?
N/A (confirming previous forecast)