Seems like a reach for this timeframe.
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Relative Brier Score
26
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 4 | 23 | 174 | 26 | 1383 |
| Comments | 3 | 20 | 185 | 23 | 299 |
| Questions Forecasted | 4 | 21 | 64 | 23 | 162 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 134 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Jan 2026
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jan 2026
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Yes
99%
(+4%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Then again, a lot of folks, even in government, like to reach borderline absurdity.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
33%
(0%)
Less than $350 million
38%
(0%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million
20%
(0%)
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million
7%
(0%)
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million
2%
(0%)
More than or equal to $800 million
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
34%
(-5%)
Yes
66%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Time update.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Time update.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
71%
(-3%)
U.S. Entity
51%
(+1%)
Non-U.S. Entity
Why do you think you're right?
Slight tweak.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
n/a
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
74%
(+5%)
U.S. Entity
50%
(+5%)
Non-U.S. Entity
Why do you think you're right?
Routine update.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Routine update.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
42%
(+2%)
Less than $350 million
33%
(+10%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million
13%
(-6%)
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million
8%
(-4%)
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million
4%
(-2%)
More than or equal to $650 million
Why do you think you're right?
Fresh forecast after reviewing latest information. Not as confident in lower values as last forecast but maintaining Bin A as the plurality. Downside potential.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Overweighting lower estimates.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-1%)
Estonia
9%
(-1%)
Latvia
10%
(-1%)
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
Time update.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Time update.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Routine update. Bumping Espriella based on recent trends.
Why might you be wrong?
n/a