probahilliby

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Certified Superforecaster® at Good Judgment Inc. (Ranked #1 in 2025 Season); Metaculus Pro forecaster; forecaster for the RAND Forecasting Institute; culinarian; pharmacology.

"Surprisingly-resistant-to-regression-to-the-mean forecaster"

Questions everything but not a cynic.

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Forecasted Questions
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Will any major international non-governmental research funders implement specific policies restricting or requiring oversight of mirror biology research by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 28, 2025 04:36AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 56% 45%
No 44% 55%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 29, 2025 07:10PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 39% 15%
No 61% 85%

Will mirror organisms be formally addressed as a biosecurity concern in official proceedings of at least one of the following international forums (BWC Review Conference, G7/G20 Health/Science ministerial meetings, WHO forums) by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jan 01, 2026 06:24AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 50% 63%
No 50% 37%

Will scientists be able to assemble a ribosome in vitro, composed entirely of synthetic proteins and RNA, without the use of cell-derived materials by 2030?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jan 01, 2026 06:43AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 31% 36%
No 69% 64%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jan 04, 2026 11:57PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications 14% 3%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP 79% 96%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP 7% 2%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jan 05, 2026 01:01AM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 13% 3%
No 87% 97%

How many people will earn research doctorates in microbiology and immunology fields in the U.S. between the 2026 and 2030 academic years?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jan 05, 2026 01:19AM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than or equal to 4,499 6% 8%
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive 17% 11%
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive 53% 73%
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive 17% 6%
More than or equal to 6,000 7% 1%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups globally be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jan 05, 2026 03:41AM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $1 billion 54% 93%
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion 20% 6%
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion 11% 1%
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion 8% 0%
More than or equal to $1.6 billion 7% 0%

Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jan 05, 2026 03:41AM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 41% 20%
No 59% 80%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jan 05, 2026 03:41AM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 11% 7%
No 89% 93%
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