RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, a measure of U.S. residential home costs, exceed 350 by July 2027?

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 13, 2025 06:56PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	39%	52%	-13%	-3%
No	61%	48%	+13%	+3%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the EU, UK, and Switzerland be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 22, 2025 02:55AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $350 million	33%	36%	-3%	+7%
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million	38%	44%	-6%	-1%
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million	20%	16%	+4%	-6%
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million	7%	3%	+4%	-1%
More than or equal to $800 million	2%	1%	+1%	+0%

Will any national government publicly declare that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has been achieved within that country by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 25, 2025 06:24AM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	1%	+4%	+0%
No	95%	99%	-4%	+0%

Who will win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 25, 2025 06:41AM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Iván Cepeda	26%	36%	-10%	-9%
Sergio Fajardo	19%	9%	+10%	-10%
Abelardo de la Espriella	31%	46%	-15%	+20%
Other	24%	9%	+15%	-1%

Will any major international non-governmental research funders implement specific policies restricting or requiring oversight of mirror biology research by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 28, 2025 04:36AM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	56%	48%	+8%	+2%
No	44%	52%	-8%	-2%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 29, 2025 07:10PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	39%	16%	+23%	+0%
No	61%	84%	-23%	+0%

Will mirror organisms be formally addressed as a biosecurity concern in official proceedings of at least one of the following international forums (BWC Review Conference, G7/G20 Health/Science ministerial meetings, WHO forums) by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 01, 2026 06:24AM UTC
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	50%	63%	-13%	+0%
No	50%	37%	+13%	+0%

Will scientists be able to assemble a ribosome in vitro, composed entirely of synthetic proteins and RNA, without the use of cell-derived materials by 2030?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 01, 2026 06:43AM UTC
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	31%	39%	-8%	+0%
No	69%	61%	+8%	+0%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 04, 2026 11:57PM UTC
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	14%	3%	+11%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	79%	95%	-16%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	7%	2%	+5%	+0%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 05, 2026 01:01AM UTC
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	13%	3%	+10%	+0%
No	87%	97%	-10%	+0%

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