Numa

A formal, irreversible move toward de jure independence by Taiwan, a major, unexpected U.S. military deployment, or a complete collapse of domestic stability in China could be seen as a "trigger."

The major factor that could prove this assessment wrong is the outsized role of the United States under the current administration. A potential, major, non-public agreement between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, perhaps including a robust security pact and civil nuclear cooperation, could be deemed significant enough by the Saudi Crown Prince to partially waive or reinterpret the Palestinian condition, possibly settling for a declarative U.S. commitment to the two-state solution rather than an "irreversible pathway" from Israel.