80th
Accuracy Rank

Numa

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC How many major hurricanes (Category 3 or above) will make landfall in the continental United States between 1 June 2025 and 30 September 2025? -0.00002
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025? -0.000039
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will there be at least 37 million inbound travelers to the U.S. in July 2025? -0.006956
Aug 08, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will the number of acres burned by wildfires in the United States in July 2025 exceed 1,283,147 acres? -0.001941
Aug 01, 2025 09:00PM UTC Will U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval rating be greater than 45% on 1 August 2025? -0.000268
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will all NATO members agree to a defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 31 July 2025? -0.000542
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will the U.S. national average gas price be equal to or above $3.600 for July 2025? 0.018463
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025? -0.000003
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will the United States and Iran announce a new nuclear deal before 1 August 2025? -0.000118
Jul 24, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will the share of battery-electric vehicles among new registered cars in the EU exceed 20% by the second quarter of 2025? -0.002241
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025? -0.000008
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025? 0.0
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will the U.S. Congress pass a budget reconciliation bill before 1 July 2025? 0.033805
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