Confirmed previous forecast
0.571422
Relative Brier Score
216
Forecasts
19
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 108 | 86 | 530 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 95 | 91 | 214 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 32 | 22 | 73 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 14 | 12 | 60 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China engage in a lethal confrontation by 30 September 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
46%
(0%)
Yes
54%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Yes
94%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Yes
99%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
The need for imports continues to fall and with no infrastructure in place to support delivery of gas.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A sharp change in weather in 4th quarter demanding more gas for heating.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.
7%
(+5%)
More than €0 but less than €10 billion
42%
(+9%)
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion
39%
(+6%)
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion
12%
(-20%)
€30 billion or more
Why do you think you're right?
Reducing top bin as funding seems to have stalled for the time being. Perhaps just a lag in the data or more focus on Israel/Iran and NATO summit.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Breakthrough by Russia or Ukraine could prompt a change in support.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
56%
(+2%)
Less than or equal to 1
44%
(0%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(-2%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Atlantic remains very calm.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Storms could spin up very quickly in the Gulf of Mexico.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 1, 2025 11:40PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Jul 1, 2025 to Jan 1, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Jul 1, 2025 to Jan 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 1, 2025 11:40PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Jul 1, 2025 to Jan 1, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Jul 1, 2025 to Jan 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Moldova
0%
(0%)
Armenia
1%
(0%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files