Confirmed previous forecast
2.262035
Relative Brier Score
45
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 3 | 23 | 3 | 324 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 92 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 65 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?
Compare to me
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New Prediction
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New Prediction
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Confirmed previous forecast
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Bold bet! Could be...
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New Prediction
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100%
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Why do you think you're right?
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Why might you be wrong?
Only if its delayed.
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This announcement from Malaysia may not qualify. The more details section states "The announcement must occur during the forecast period, but actual implementation can occur later. If a system was announced before 4 November 2025, it will not count even if implementation occurs during the forecast period."
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Yes
0%
No
Why do you think you're right?
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-62778-8
It will happen and with AI, maybe sooner.
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Why might you be wrong?
If any war breaks out, this event will be delayed.
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