SOUZACaio

Denis Sassour Nguesso might wins the next election. He has a historical of governance and control of Congolese institutions, his party is hegemonic, and the opposition does not have freedom enough to does its work, mainly after several corruption scandal.

The kidnapping of maduro on January 3 is a double-edged sword for Trump and Rodríguez. The operation held in early January, supposedly with internal Venezuelan cooperation, paves the way to solve some problems aggravated by Maduro's government.

For the Americans, the access to Venezuelan oil, which some American refineries are able to do, will flow toward their enterprises; the consolidation of American power in Latin America via distancing of Chinese and Russia presence and interests in the region became stronger; a possible solution to finish or at least reduce the immigrants toward American territory might be expected for next years; and more opportunities of business for corporations from the United States, as happened in Iraq invasion in 2003, appear due Venezuelan opening. On the other hand, Trump's presidency will have to work together with an illegal government in Venezuela, avoiding a situation of almost anarchy, as occurred in Iraq and Afghanistan after American withdrawal; Americans must guarantee cooperation of Western powers to unfreeze and liberate Venezuelan foreign funds; and more important, they have to decide what will be fate of Maduro.

For Venezuela, the American operation starts a new ambiguous era of how maintain autocracy and freedom: internal structures of powers must not challenge Rodríguez's government, because it can ignite a chaotic situation, which the Trump presidency wants to avoid; ideological principles, if actually exist, must be forgotten toward more presence of American enterprises both from oil sector as several other sectors that will do business mandatorily in Venezuela; Venezuelan army high-ranking officials must enforce peace, which means no future uprising, at the same time that accepts subordination of Americans, and the leaders of the Bolivarian nation must realize that their maintenance on power depends on if they are doing exactly what Trump's administration ordered.  

In this way, Trump already declared that Delcy will remain on power if she cooperates with Americans as well as he does not see the necessity of elections ahead. Foreign criticism about the American military operation does pressure toward a safe fate for Venezuela, instead of what happened in the aftermath of the American withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan as well as to the legitimacy of his actions over International Law and real existence of threat from former Maduro's government and the supposed Cartel de los soles.

Then, after the kidnaping of Maduro by Americans, which can be faced as an electoral Trump's maneuver too, the Venezuelan future seems to be drafted by American: an unelected leader without legitimacy will run the country guaranteeing total access for Americans, mainly oil corporations to Venezuelan economy and fate, within order provided by Rodríguez's maintenance on power, and her constant fear of an internal uprising or an American operation like her successor suffered, motivated by some American revenge due some Rodríguez policy that displeases Trump. 

Due climate conditions, the next months are not favorable to the consolidation of stronger storms, neither strong hurricane. Also, just in few times hurricanes were formed in this period. So, is unlikely the consolidation of hurricanes in the months ahead,

The posture adopted by China over its supposed right to reconquest Taiwan has come more aggressive day by day. As a form of response to any statements or declarations from Western nations, Taiwan, the United States, and Japan on Taiwanese freedom or independency, Chinese officials have intensified the frequency and the audacity of military drills and surveillance activities, which includes the violation of the contiguous zone of the island. 

This issue reached the highest level in history: the president of China ordered its army to prepare an invasion and reconquest of the island within few years, the Americans as well as their allies in Japan and other countries has increased the support of Taiwanese sovereignty and defense as well as military aid. Moreover, the increasing American strategy of confrontation against China and their military adventures throughout the world give more reasons and perhaps credibility to China performs the invasion of Taiwan.

Therefore, in next months, one more Chinese invasion in Taiwan's contiguous zone might happen, mainly if intimidation postures from both sides carry on.

While the United Nations Security Council stayed paralyzed through internal disputes among countries, especially those who have veto power, a new peacekeeping force mission will not be established. For beyond of those places where already blue helmets troops are deployed, there are no more scenario to they act: in Ukraine, Russia would not allow their deployment; in Gaza, the United States would not approve, in favor of Israeli domain of Palestine; in China-India border or even in Pakistan-India border, China would not give permission toward the maintenance  its power over the Asiatic region; and United Arab Emirates or Saudi Arabia would use their friendly relationship with Trump to veto the blue helmets in Sudanese or Yemeni grounds. 

Hence, there is no favorite scenario to United Nations peacekeeping troops act nowadays, mainly under strong disagreements among the Permanent 5 group and their increasing strive for dominance of influence spheres of the world.