Confirmed previous forecast
-0.148972
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 2 | 27 | 2 | 41 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 14 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 2 | 15 | 2 | 19 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Yes
92%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
There is still reasonable expectations to believe that European imports may have surged in the last weeks of the year given the de-escalation in the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Although that is true, the geopolitical scope of 2025 makes hard to believe the idea of 19B cubic meters
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
20%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
62%
(0%)
Yes
38%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
8%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
15%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
36%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
41%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
With rising tensions in the Middle East and Donald Trump's recent threats against Iran, it is possible to argue that the Houthi movement will increase their activities and most likely perform targeted attacks in the region.
Why might you be wrong?
In recent months, tensions had been de-escalating on the region given Trump's focus on targeting Venezuela. Although threats have become more frequent once again, it is safe to say that there is no guarantee of a continuous attack on the region by the movement.