Scott-Tobias

Scott Tobias
About:

Associate Professor of Human Development and Family Science

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2025 Season Stats

0.398491

Relative Brier Score

10

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 10 10 64
Comments 0 0 2 2 7
Questions Forecasted 0 0 8 8 19
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 1
 Definitions
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

The impact of the BBB, if passed, will hold approval underwater to a significant extent. 

Files
Why might you be wrong?


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New Prediction
How many major hurricanes (Category 3 or above) will make landfall in the continental United States between 1 June 2025 and 30 September 2025?
Scott-Tobias made their 1st forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
10%
Less than or equal to 1
73%
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
17%
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?

No particular reason, this is a gut feeling based on the past few years.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

I was wrong?

Files
New Prediction
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Scott-Tobias made their 2nd forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Oct 2, 2025 09:27PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
24% (0%)
Yes
Jul 2, 2025 to Jan 2, 2027
76% (0%)
No
Jul 2, 2025 to Jan 2, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Scott-Tobias earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Scott-Tobias made their 7th forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Aug 2, 2025 09:26PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (0%)
Yes
Jul 2, 2025 to Jan 2, 2026
98% (0%)
No
Jul 2, 2025 to Jan 2, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Scott-Tobias made their 1st forecast (view all):
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Apr 6, 2025 04:02PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
24%
Yes
Jan 6, 2025 to Jul 6, 2026
76%
No
Jan 6, 2025 to Jul 6, 2026
Why do you think you're right?

Increasingly belligerent acts by Russia may cascade beyond their intended electronic purpose, harming the physical world.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Specialized and disciplined attacks are undertaken.

Files
New Prediction
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Scott-Tobias made their 5th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
97% (0%)
Yes
3% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Scott-Tobias made their 6th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
5% (0%)
Yes
95% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Scott-Tobias made their 6th forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Feb 6, 2025 04:00PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (0%)
Yes
Jan 6, 2025 to Jul 6, 2025
98% (0%)
No
Jan 6, 2025 to Jul 6, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Scott-Tobias made their 6th forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Apr 6, 2025 04:00PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3% (0%)
Yes
Jan 6, 2025 to Jan 6, 2026
97% (0%)
No
Jan 6, 2025 to Jan 6, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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