No particular reason, this is a gut feeling based on the past few years.
0.94918
Relative Brier Score
64
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 64 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 19 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Iran: Threats & Influence,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Emerging Technology,
Quickfire Forecasts
Most Active Topics:
Iran-VNSAs,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Decoding Disinformation,
Cybersecurity
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Less than or equal to 1
73%
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
17%
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I was wrong?
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 2, 2025 09:27PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
24%
(0%)
Yes
Jul 2, 2025 to Jan 2, 2027
76%
(0%)
No
Jul 2, 2025 to Jan 2, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 2, 2025 09:26PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Jul 2, 2025 to Jan 2, 2026
98%
(0%)
No
Jul 2, 2025 to Jan 2, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 6, 2025 04:02PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
24%
Yes
Jan 6, 2025 to Jul 6, 2026
76%
No
Jan 6, 2025 to Jul 6, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Increasingly belligerent acts by Russia may cascade beyond their intended electronic purpose, harming the physical world.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Specialized and disciplined attacks are undertaken.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
97%
(0%)
Yes
3%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 6, 2025 04:00PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 6, 2025 to Jul 6, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Jan 6, 2025 to Jul 6, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 6, 2025 04:00PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 6, 2025 to Jan 6, 2026
97%
(0%)
No
Jan 6, 2025 to Jan 6, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The impact of the BBB, if passed, will hold approval underwater to a significant extent.
Why might you be wrong?