With a week left, we are at 1491 confirmed. School has started so there's more likelihood of a spread over next 8 days to push us to the next band.
1.350392
Relative Brier Score
46
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 46 | 46 | 46 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 41 | 41 | 41 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-1%)
Less than or equal to 1349
23%
(-18%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
53%
(+20%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
17%
(-1%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There may be delays in diagnoses that keep the number below 1500 until after sept 30.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Less than $21.0 billion
12%
(0%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
11%
(0%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
11%
(0%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
63%
(0%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(-39%)
Yes
80%
(+39%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
The chances of satellite collision increase with more satellites in orbit. As china and india continue to launch more in space, whether inadvertently or on purpose, it increases the chance of satellites being disabled. In addition, countries that have ani-satellite weapons are and continue to be our adversaries (https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2022-11/news-briefs/seven-countries-join-asat-test-ban). Our diplomatic relations with those countries still remain strained so the threat is still more than zero.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
While the chances seem lower than the previous forecast, there's still relevant concerns about airspace from our allies. Most recently, France space commander said hostility activity has increased since the Ukraine war while China's capabilities continue to grow. (https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/french-military-leader-warns-increased-hostile-activity-space-2025-09-19/); Both China and Russia have concerns about Starlink and began publishing research papers aimed at taking them down (https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/spotlights/2025/chinese-researchers-suggest-lasers-and-sabotage-to-counter-musks-starlink-satellites/)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
41%
(0%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
33%
(0%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
18%
(0%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 500
39%
(0%)
Between 501 and 750, inclusive
34%
(0%)
Between 751 and 1000, inclusive
15%
(0%)
Between 1001 and 1250, inclusive
4%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1251
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 250
18%
Between 250 and 349, inclusive
30%
Between 350 and 449, inclusive
37%
Between 450 and 549, inclusive
15%
More than or equal to 550
Why do you think you're right?
July 2025 showed over 500 total victims, I'd be unsure why August would be less than that, when historical august numbers have also increased over the past few years.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I don't know enough about when hackers like to hack.. are there breach "season"? Do they follow some trend, like during tax return times or something. Because of this, i may be wrong with a linear guess.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?
Trade depends on the availability of goods to trade. With the tariffs implemented, there's disruptions to supply chains and shifting of resources can delay production (https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/aftermath-tariffs#:~:text=Second%2C%20tariffs%20generate%20multiple%20sources,seen%20previously%20ordered%20planes%20returned.&text=Finally%2C%20there%20are%20also%20'general,and%20diminishing%20innovation%20and%20growth.);