Despite the technical potential, progress in this field is likely to be slowed by financial and structural challenges. Major funding sources like the NIH are facing significant budget cuts, which impacts nearly all basic biological research. Additionally, the current research model still requires constant human supervision of AI driven tools, preventing the full automation and speed that AI could offer. Because this type of research doesn’t yet promise large commercial returns, private investment may also remain limited, further constraining development.
-0.000227
Relative Brier Score
11
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 16 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 12 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 15 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
13%
Yes
87%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Recent studies and insights from experts indicate that achieving this goal is quite realistic. Advances in PCR technology and DNA amplification have already made it possible to piece together synthetic DNA and insert it into cellular frameworks. In fact, since around 2016, researchers have been steadily moving toward the creation of cells that operate entirely on synthetic genomes showing that the scientific foundation for this breakthrough is already well established.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
97%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Egypt, Jordan, UAE all is partner, friend for West. US need them for security, EU need them for energy stable. Russia and China not so much care about sanction there, they more want business. If West put sanction, they risk lose ally, risk lose oil and gas flow. Middle East is fragile, sanction make more trouble. So big country prefer keep relation soft, not make sanction
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The big power want to punish Middle East country if politics go wrong. If Egypt or Jordan or UAE make too close deal with Russia or Iran, then US or EU maybe angry, make sanction. China sometimes use sanction too, if they feel their company lose market. Also, world very sensitive with oil and gas now, many government want show strong. So even small chance, sanction still possible before June 2026.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
South Korea is a key anchor for U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific, where deterring both China and North Korea is central. Reducing the U.S. presence there would weaken deterrence, undercut alliances, and risk signaling retreat from the region Trump’s own administration has called the top strategic priority.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Trump has long questioned the value of keeping U.S. forces in South Korea and has openly stated that pulling troops out would be a goal in a second term. The Pentagon has already reviewed plans for such a move, which shows the idea is more than rhetoric.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Money problems, wars in world, and bad feelings about U.S. making it not so nice place to visit.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Travel numbers keep going up for long time, and after COVID things getting better, so people think more growth coming
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The SAF now has an important defensive advantage because it is fighting from fortified, well-prepared positions with more than twenty thousand troops inside Khartoum. Earlier in 2025, the SAF regained control of key locations such as the presidential palace, the international airport, and several other major sites, and announced that the city was fully secured. Forces on the defensive usually have strong benefits in urban settings because they know the terrain, have established positions, and can use the environment to slow or stop attacks.
Why might you be wrong?
The RSF receives strong support from outside the country, especially from the UAE, which supplies advanced weapons such as FH-95 kamikaze drones and modern anti-aircraft equipment. The arrival of Colombian mercenaries has also given the RSF a new kind of battlefield experience that could influence how future fighting unfolds. With these resources, the RSF is able to carry out long-distance attacks on SAF positions in Khartoum and may be able to prepare for a larger push in the future.