Most regional exports are still oil and gas sold to Asia, Europe, and North America. Because energy makes up the bulk of export value, trade within the region remains small and is unlikely to grow quickly in the near term.
-0.040911
Relative Brier Score
18
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
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Most Active Topics:
Emerging Technology,
Geopolitical Security,
Quickfire Forecasts,
Artificial Intelligence,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Open RAN,
MENA,
China Lithography,
Russia-Europe,
Mirror Life
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Expanding local and regional manufacturing especially for intermediate and industrial goods would strengthen trade within the region. More foreign investment in countries such as Morocco and Egypt could help build new industries that supply nearby markets, not just global ones.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The SAF now has an important defensive advantage because it is fighting from fortified, well-prepared positions with more than twenty thousand troops inside Khartoum. Earlier in 2025, the SAF regained control of key locations such as the presidential palace, the international airport, and several other major sites, and announced that the city was fully secured. Forces on the defensive usually have strong benefits in urban settings because they know the terrain, have established positions, and can use the environment to slow or stop attacks.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The RSF receives strong support from outside the country, especially from the UAE, which supplies advanced weapons such as FH-95 kamikaze drones and modern anti-aircraft equipment. The arrival of Colombian mercenaries has also given the RSF a new kind of battlefield experience that could influence how future fighting unfolds. With these resources, the RSF is able to carry out long-distance attacks on SAF positions in Khartoum and may be able to prepare for a larger push in the future.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
13%
Yes
87%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Despite the technical potential, progress in this field is likely to be slowed by financial and structural challenges. Major funding sources like the NIH are facing significant budget cuts, which impacts nearly all basic biological research. Additionally, the current research model still requires constant human supervision of AI driven tools, preventing the full automation and speed that AI could offer. Because this type of research doesn’t yet promise large commercial returns, private investment may also remain limited, further constraining development.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Recent studies and insights from experts indicate that achieving this goal is quite realistic. Advances in PCR technology and DNA amplification have already made it possible to piece together synthetic DNA and insert it into cellular frameworks. In fact, since around 2016, researchers have been steadily moving toward the creation of cells that operate entirely on synthetic genomes showing that the scientific foundation for this breakthrough is already well established.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
97%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Egypt, Jordan, UAE all is partner, friend for West. US need them for security, EU need them for energy stable. Russia and China not so much care about sanction there, they more want business. If West put sanction, they risk lose ally, risk lose oil and gas flow. Middle East is fragile, sanction make more trouble. So big country prefer keep relation soft, not make sanction
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The big power want to punish Middle East country if politics go wrong. If Egypt or Jordan or UAE make too close deal with Russia or Iran, then US or EU maybe angry, make sanction. China sometimes use sanction too, if they feel their company lose market. Also, world very sensitive with oil and gas now, many government want show strong. So even small chance, sanction still possible before June 2026.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
LLMs present structural safety challenges, including hallucinations, performance drift over time, and unstable responses based on how questions are phrased. These issues arise from the models emergent behavior rather than explicit programming, making them difficult to test or validate with standard methods. Concerns raised at the November 2025 DHAC meeting emphasized that these weaknesses are especially dangerous in crisis or high stakes scenarios.
Why might you be wrong?
Class I medical devices that use LLMs for low risk workflow support, such as drafting reports, summarizing patient records, or translating radiology notes, could obtain clearance without full clinical trials. Because these tools do not make diagnostic or treatment claims, they may only require software validation and could pass through a lighter 510 k pathway if deemed comparable to already cleared products.